The gold analysts at RBC Capital Markets had a slight problem – the price of gold blew past their upside projections within weeks of the year's start.
The team have therefore had another look at the forces driving the price of the precious metal higher, and has calculated how high gold could go if it replicated last year's record-breaking performance.
They said around their initial forecast:
Our call has been that gold would trade mostly in the US$4500-5000/oz range this year with upside risk mostly in H2 and allowing for it to trade as high as US$5203/oz on average in Q4 in our high scenario. Reaching above US$5000/oz was possible, even likely, in our view later this year, but the pace of this rally has surpassed our expectations – arguably a familiar story given the pace of gold's gains last year. This leaves us with several questions: Are these prices sustainable? How high could they go? What does past experience tell us?
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Gold price stimulus still in place
The current drivers of the surge in the gold price, RBC said in their note to clients, were uncertainty and macroeconomic factors, especially weakness in the US dollar.
They added:
Between trade, politics, geopolitical instability, Fed independence concerns, etc., there are plenty of drivers to look at, so our top theme for 2026 is certainly alive and well. Likewise, based on all our conversations in the first few weeks of the year, we do not think investor or central bank demand will fall away, with more tonnage added … and central banks still in the buying camp in search of diversification.
Time left to run for this rally
So how high could the price of gold go? RBC has looked at previous gold rallies going back to the 1980s and said that they tend to last 1062-1168 days.
Given the current rally was 844 days old at the time of publication of their research note, "similar major rallies of the past point to early September or mid-December (essentially the end of the year) based on duration alone''.
And in terms of the price, using 2025 as a proxy, the price could go much higher.
The RBC team said:
Already gold has set 8 new all-time highs in 2026 (well above last year's average pace), making another 2025-style year look possible. Many of the same underpinnings are there and importantly, we still do not get a sense of exhaustion in terms of accumulation from investors or from the official sector (i.e., central banks). Using 2025's gains as a proxy, scaling similar ground in percentage terms would put gold as high as US$7100/oz at year end.
The RBC team said that while their projections were "not exactly scientific", they did provide some context around how long gold rallies tend to run, and how strong they can be.
The gold price was US$5186.65 per ounce on Wednesday morning.
