ASX 200 mining shares have gone gangbusters amid several key commodities soaring over the past year.
Yesterday, the gold price leapt to a new record above US$4,960 per ounce, and the silver price reached a record US$99.10 per ounce.
Platinum also touched a new record at US$2,661 per ounce.
Meantime, lithium prices continue to streak higher.
The lithium carbonate price has rocketed 72% in just one month to trade at a 26-month high of US$24,521 per tonne.
This has led many brokers to update their ratings and 12-month share price targets for ASX 200 mining shares.
Some experts perceive a little irrational exuberance in the market today.
Here are two ASX 200 mining shares that some experts say have overshot their fundamental worth.
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Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)
The Evolution Mining share price is up about 160% over 12 months.
This ASX 200 large-cap gold share reached a record $15.29 per share on Friday.
The Evolution share price closed the week at $14.86.
Evolution operates a portfolio of gold mines across Australia, including major sites in NSW, Queensland, and Western Australia.
Morgans put a trim rating on Evolution shares last week after the company reported its latest quarterly earnings.
The broker said Evolution beat market expectations for production and costs. The miner also generated record cash flow again.
But Morgans is concerned about valuation. It suggests that investors trim their holdings.
The broker commented:
We maintain our TRIM rating as we view the stock as fully valued.
However, we see merit in retaining some exposure given EVN's significant leverage to gold and copper prices, which are currently at record levels.
The broker raised its 12-month share price target from $11.10 to $13.20, which implies a potential downside of 11%.
RBC Capital is far more pessimistic and expects a significant fall in the Evolution share price.
The broker reiterated its sell rating after the miner's earnings release.
RBC raised its share price target slightly from $10 to $10.10.
This implies a potential downside of 32% over the next year for this ASX 200 gold mining share.
Macquarie is similarly negative in its outlook.
It also reiterated a sell rating and a $10.20 price target last week.
Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR)
Liontown shares are up about 230% over 12 months.
The ASX lithium share set a new 52-week high of $2.26 earlier this month.
The Liontown share price finished the week at $2.19.
Liontown operates the Kathleen Valley hard-rock lithium project in Western Australia.
Last week, Citi reiterated its sell rating on Liontown shares.
The broker lifted its 12-month price target from 50 cents to $1.70, but this still implies a potential 22% fall ahead.
Macquarie is even more pessimistic.
The broker reiterated its sell rating on Liontown with the expectation that it will plummet to $1 per share by the end of the year.
That suggests the ASX lithium mining share will lose more than half its value.
The worst prediction is from Jarden, which expects Liontown shares to nosedive to 58 cents by the end of 2026.
