Chinese birthrate punches a hole in the A2 Milk share price

This key market is looking challenging.

| More on:
A baby's eyes open wide in surprise as it sucks on a milk bottle.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Shares in A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) continued to fall on Tuesday after a trading halt as investors digested some dire statistics out of China around the country's birthrate.

The company's shares fell more than 13% on Monday to be changing hands for $8.30, prompting the company to place its shares in a trading halt while it formulated an explanation for the fall to the ASX.

Company sheds little light

In an announcement that came out mid-afternoon yesterday, the company said there was no unannounced information that it believed could explain the share price fall.

It did say, very briefly, that the China National Bureau of Statistics "made its annual announcement of the number of newborns in China for the preceding year''.

What the company did not explain, and which has been reported in a number of media outlets, is that China's birthrate for 2025 fell to 5.63 births per thousand people, down from 6.39, and the lowest figure on record.

Given that A2 Milk derives a large proportion of its revenue from infant formula sales in China, the demographic shift away from having children is not good news for the company.

A2 Milk shares fell a further 1.9% on Tuesday morning to be changing hands for $8.13.

Guiding to revenue growth

A2 Milk in November upgraded its FY26 revenue guidance, saying that infant milk formula, other nutritionals, and liquid milk product categories were trading stronger than expected, and it was also benefiting from positive foreign currency movements.

It said at the time that it expected revenue growth in the double digits over the half and for its EBITDA margin to be 15% to 16%.

A2 Milk will report its first-half results on February 16.

The company also announced on Tuesday that Helena He would take on the role of Chief Marketing Officer at the company.

The company said in a statement:

Helena has significant experience in the China infant milk formula and vitamins, minerals and supplements (VMS) categories, and has both chief marketing officer and management experience working with leading global nutrition and fast-moving consumer goods companies including in Australia. Helena will; join a2 Milk Company from her most recent role as general manager, VMS – Haleon China, where she spent the past five years based in Shanghai leading the VMS category.

A2 Milk said Ms He's previous experience was with one of Europe's largest dairy companies, FrieslandCampina.

A2 Milk was valued at $6.02 billion at the close of trade on Monday.

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

a man frustrated looking at the engine of his car
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

ARB shares are crashing 15% today. What's spooking investors?

ARB shares slide 15% after a profit downgrade rattles investors.

Read more »

Woman and 2 men conducting a wine tasting.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Can this ASX 200 stock recover after losing 51%?

Broker enthusiasm is going flat for the prestigious wine share.

Read more »

A customer and shopper at the checkout of a supermarket.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

5 reasons to buy Woolworths shares in 2026

With bad news largely priced in and earnings expected to rebound, Woolworths could be an appealing large-cap recovery story in…

Read more »

Man open mouthed looking shocked while holding betting slip
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Are The Lottery Corporation shares a buy, sell or hold at current levels?

A lack of jackpots might weigh on upcoming results.

Read more »

A jockey gets down low on a beautiful race horse as they flash past in a professional horse race with another competitor and horse a little further behind in the background.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Buyback news has this ASX All Ords gaming stock looking like a sure bet

The buyback will run in parallel to an M&A strategy.

Read more »

a man sits alone in his house with a dejected look on his face as he looks at a glass of red wine he is holding in his hand with an open bottle on the table in front of him.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Treasury Wine Estates shares drop 50%: Is there any upside left in 2026?

Find out what the analysts expect from the wine giant this year.

Read more »

Hand with AI in capital letters and AI-related digital icons.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Buying Woolworths shares? Here's how the supermarket is tapping into the AI revolution

Woolworths shares are going high-tech with an AI enabled shopping chatbot.

Read more »

Couple look at a bottle of wine while trying to decide what to buy.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Guess which ASX 200 stock is tumbling 4% on trading update

Let's see what the Dan Murphy's and BWS owner reported.

Read more »