BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares and other S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper stocks, including Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) and Canadian-based Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC), could enjoy some ongoing tailwinds in 2026.
All three of the miners – and their shareholders – have already benefited from surging copper prices over the past year.
Copper is currently fetching US$12,998 per tonne. That's up 43% from this time last year, when that same tonne was trading for US$9,094.
The meteoric rise of the red metal has helped send the Capstone Copper price soaring 50.6% over the past 12 months. And shares in Sandfire, perhaps the purest play ASX 200 copper stock, have rocketed 99.9% over this time.
With a far more diversified commodity base, and iron ore still counting as its top revenue earner, BHP shares have gained a more modest 18.4% in 12 months. Though unlike its rivals, BHP shares also trade on a fully franked 3.7% dividend yield.
For some context, the ASX 200 has gained 7% over the full year.
Why ASX 200 copper stocks could keep smashing the benchmark
The copper price has been surging amid fast-growing demand to meet the needs of the global energy transition, amid limited supply growth. Copper is also critical in plumbing and in combustion engines, as well as EVs.
And forecast ongoing demand growth should see further price gains for the red metal, helping support BHP shares and other top ASX 200 copper stocks like Sandfire and Capstone.
Indeed, as The Australian Financial Review reports, Morgan Stanley expects 2026 will see the copper market enter its worst deficit in more than two decades.
And that deficit could continue to run for many years.
S&P Global expects that global copper demand will leap from 28 million tonnes in 2025 to reach 42 million tonnes by 2040, representing a 50% increase in demand.
"Without significant adjustments, copper supply faces a growing challenge of keeping up with the accelerating pace of electrification," S&P Global noted in what will come as good news to investors in ASX 200 copper stocks.
According to Carlos Pascual, S&P Global senior vice president of geopolitics and international affairs (quoted by the AFR):
Countries are recognising that there's a concentration of processing in China, and it's reinforcing a recognition of the importance of supply chain diversification.
The uses of copper have become fundamental requirements in national security. The race to win in AI is fundamental, and that has raised its connection with electricity and to copper as a national security issue.
The proliferation of EVs and the ongoing artificial intelligence revolution are expected to turbocharge copper demand, which would help support Sandfire and BHP shares in the medium to longer term.
Daniel Yergin, S&P Global vice chairman, noted:
It was not until November 2022 that the AI arms race began. So, you have a lot of new demand coming into the system that wasn't there before.
An electric car uses 2.9 times more copper than a conventional car. Over 90% of the electric generating capacity that was added last year was wind and solar, and they are much more copper-intensive than traditional electric generation, particularly solar.
BHP shares increasing copper exposure
Although BHP shares don't offer as direct exposure to copper prices as ASX 200 copper stocks like Sandfire Resources, BHP has been actively working to increase its copper exposure.
In its FY 2025 full-year results release, BHP noted:
In FY25, BHP's total copper production increased for a third consecutive year to a record 2,017 kt, 28% higher than in FY22, driven by strong performances across all operated copper assets.
This drove a 44% increase in our total copper Underlying EBITDA to US$12.3 bn and increased copper's contribution to the Group's Underlying EBITDA to 45% (FY24: 29%).
Group copper production for FY26 is expected to remain strong at between 1,800 kt and 2,000 kt on a consolidated basis.
And at its latest September quarter results release, BHP reported a 4% increase in copper production, with record concentrator throughput at Escondida.
"In copper, major disruptions at some of our competitors' mines have tightened overall market fundamentals, benefitting our world-class portfolio of assets," BHP CEO Mike Henry said on the day.
