The Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) share price is essentially where it was six months ago, as the chart below shows. Experts think the ASX telco share could be headed for positive returns from here.
Telstra is the clear leader of the telecommunications space of Australia with the most subscribers, the best spectrum assets, and the widest network coverage. This gives the company a strong foundation to deliver solid earnings and dividends.
Rising profit certainly would help provide a tailwind for a higher share price, though that's not guaranteed to happen. It partly depends on company updates, and it partly depends on wider investor confidence about the entire (ASX) share market.
Let's see where experts think the Telstra share price could be in a year and what that could mean for a $10,000 investment today.
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Expert views on the ASX telco share
According to CMC Markets, of four recent analyst ratings, there are two buy ratings and two hold ratings. That averages out to a generally positive view on the business.
A price target is where analysts think the share price will be in 12 months from the investment call.
CMC Markets says that the average price target is $5 from those four recent analyst calls, suggesting a possible rise of 3% within the next year (at the time of writing). That wouldn't be a huge return, though the most optimistic price target suggests a possible rise of more than 11% within a year.
However, there's more to the return than just the Telstra share price – dividend payments also play their part.
The forecast on CMC Markets suggests that the ASX telco share could pay an annual dividend of 20 cents per share in the 2026 financial year. At the current Telstra share price, that translates into a possible grossed-up dividend yield of 5.9%, including franking credits, or 4.1% excluding them.
Therefore, the 'total shareholder return' (which excludes franking credits) is currently projected to be around 7% for 2026.
What could this mean for a $10,000 investment in Telstra shares?
A $10,000 investment could deliver decent performance for a shareholder in the year ahead. A 3% rise would mean the capital value grows to approximately $10,300.
Meanwhile, the dividend would translate into roughly $410 of an annual cash payment, or roughly $585 of grossed-up dividend income, including the franking credits. That'd be total wealth growth of just over $700.
Time will tell how much of a return Telstra actually makes, but there's a fair chance it could outperform the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), particularly if Telstra's net profit outperforms expectations.
According to the projection on CMC Markets, Telstra could generate earnings per share (EPS) of 20.5 cents in FY26. That means the Telstra share price is trading at under 24x FY26's estimated earnings.
