BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares feature in countless ASX share portfolios and superannuation funds.
As a result, it is fair to say that the performance of the Big Australian's shares has a big impact on the wealth of most Australians.
But was that a positive or negative impact in 2025? Let's see what happened over the 12 months.
BHP share price performance in 2025
The mining giant's shares ended 2024 trading at $39.55 and remained in or below that level for the first half of 2025.
At that stage, it was only BHP's ~79.1 cents per share fully franked interim dividend in March that created a return for shareholders.
But that all changed in the second half of the calendar year, when the BHP share price started to take flight.
There were a number of catalysts for this. One was the release of the miner's FY 2025 results.
Although BHP reported a sharp decline in profits year on year due to weaker commodity prices, its results were still ahead of consensus expectations.
In addition, resilient iron ore prices and a strong rise in the copper price gave the BHP share price an additional boost.
The end result was the company's shares rising 15% during the 12 months to end at $45.49.
This is more than double the performance of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). In 2025, the benchmark index rose 6.8% to finish at 8,714.3 points.
Don't forget the dividends
BHP is one of the biggest dividend payers on the Australian share market and has returned tens of billions of dollars to shareholders in the 2020s.
This includes total fully franked dividends of $1.71 per share in 2025, which is the equivalent of an attractive 4.3% dividend yield.
This means that BHP's shares delivered a total return of over 19% for the period.
What's next for BHP shares?
At present, brokers largely believe that the BHP share price is fairly valued at current levels.
For example, UBS has a neutral rating and $45.00 price target on its shares, whereas Morgans has a hold rating and $43.90 price target on them. This is largely in line with where its shares are currently trading.
And while Morgan Stanley is bullish and has an overweight rating on its shares, its price target of $48.00 is only approximately 5% ahead of its current share price.
But if commodity prices are stronger than expected in 2026, don't be surprised if brokers reevaluate their forecasts and price targets.
