3 ASX insurance shares to sell: experts

After strong share price gains over 2 years, is the party over for ASX insurance shares?

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Key points

  • QBE Insurance Group (ASX: QBE): Christopher Watt from Bell Potter Securities advises selling QBE shares due to mixed future conditions, moderating premium growth, and rising claims costs potentially affecting margins, plus a share price re-rating in 2025 limiting further upside.
  • Suncorp Group (ASX: SUN): Jed Richards from Shaw and Partners suggests selling Suncorp shares, citing significant claims from recent storms, net costs, and diminished share performance since August, indicating risks outweigh benefits of the buy-back.
  • Medibank Private (ASX: MPL): Blake Halligan from Catapult Wealth recommends selling Medibank shares, pointing to government pressure on payment increases to private hospitals and modest profit growth amid rising cost pressures, affecting future outlook.

Many ASX insurance shares have experienced excellent capital growth in recent years.

Amid higher post-COVID inflation, most insurers significantly raised their premiums on all types of insurance policies.

But is the party over for ASX insurance shares?

Here, we look at three insurance giants and why the experts say it's time to sell.

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE)

The QBE share price closed at $20.10 on Tuesday, up 2% for the day and up 36% over the past two years.

On The Bull this week, Christopher Watt from Bell Potter Securities has a sell rating on this ASX insurance share.

Watt explains:

This insurance giant has recently delivered a strong performance, which included solid returns on equity and a disciplined underwriting approach.

However, forward looking conditions appear more mixed. Premium growth is moderating, and rising claims costs in a higher inflation environment may start to erode margins.

The analyst says a significant re-rating for QBE shares over the past year potentially limits further upside.

Most of the good news has been priced into the stock, so investors may want to consider cashing in some gains. 

Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN)

The Suncorp share price closed at $17.82 yesterday, up 1.4% for the day and up 9.5% over the past two years.

Jed Richards from Shaw and Partners says it's time to sell this ASX insurance share.

He comments:

The insurer announced it had received more than 10,000 claims by November 26 in response to recent severe storms in New South Wales and Queensland.

The net cost to Suncorp is expected to be about $350 million, according to earlier terms of assessment.

About 5000 claims related to motor damage and a further 5000 claims involved homes.

Richard notes that Suncorp shares have fallen from $21.82 apiece on 22 August.

He adds:

Frequent buy-back updates don't offset insurance risk exposure.

Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL)

Also on The Bull, Blake Halligan from Catapult Wealth recently revealed a sell rating on this ASX insurance share.

The Medibank Private share price closed at $4.83 yesterday, up 1.3% for the day and up 35% over the past two years.

Halligan notes Medibank Private's share price decline from from $5.26 per share on 21 August.

He commented:

The Federal Government is attempting to encourage private health insurers to increase payments to private hospitals.

Net profit after tax of $500.8 million in fiscal year 2025 was up a modest 1.7 per cent on the prior corresponding period.

The risk of increasing cost pressures paints a challenging outlook.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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