With 2026 fast approaching, we look at three S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares analysts believe could struggle to deliver market-beating returns over the coming months (courtesy of The Bull).
So, without further ado…
Image source: Getty Images
2 ASX 200 shares facing potential headwinds
First up, we have Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC).
Lendlease shares are down 0.7% during the Wednesday lunch hour, changing hands for $5 apiece.
This sees the Lendlease share price down 22.9% over 12 months. Losses that will have been only partly ameliorated by the stock's partly franked 4.6% dividend yield.
And looking ahead, DP Wealth Advisory's Andrew Wielandt expects Lendlease could continue to struggle in the near term.
"Lend Lease is a property developer and investment manager. The company is focusing on growing its Australian operations," said Wielandt, who has a sell recommendation on the ASX 200 share.
Wielandt explained:
The company has reduced debt and risk by divesting overseas projects and operations. However, in our view, this may lead to fewer development opportunities as it has less capital to recycle.
The company expects fiscal year 2026 to be one of transition. The shares have fallen from $6.77 on February 17 to trade at $5.125 on December 11. We prefer to be on the sidelines at this point, while monitoring developments.
Wielandt also recommends selling Bapcor Ltd (ASX: BAP) shares.
Bapcor shares are up 3.1% today, trading for $1.76 each. Despite that welcome lift, the Bapcor share price remains down 61.8% since this time last year. The stock also trades on a fully franked 7.7% dividend yield.
"Bapcor is an aftermarket automotive parts provider. It operates the Autobarn, Burson and Autopro brands," said Wielandt.
As for his sell recommendation on the ASX 200 share, he noted:
Shares recently hit a 12-month low after the company downgraded profit guidance. Bapcor expects to deliver a statutory net loss of between $5 million and $8 million in the first half of fiscal year 2026.
Performance in the trade segment was below expectations in October and November. Revenue declined in tools and equipment when compared to the prior corresponding period. The shares have fallen from $5.11 on July 23 to trade at $1.792 on December 11.
Wielandt concluded, "We retain a sell recommendation until there is clear evidence of an operational recovery."
Which brings us to…
Time to take profits on this surging Aussie miner?
Alto Capital's Tony Locantro believes investors would do well to take profits on Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares.
"MIN is a diversified resources company, with extensive operations in lithium, iron ore, energy and mining services across Western Australia," Locantro explained.
Shares in the lithium miner and diversified resources producer are up 3.8% today, changing hands for $52.49 apiece. That sees the Mineral Resources share price up 51.3% in 12 months. And investors who bought at the recent lows on 9 April will be sitting on eye-watering gains of 261% today.
Locantro noted:
The company delivered strong operational results in the first quarter of 2026, which included record iron ore output from Onslow Iron, triggering a $200 million payment. MIN's joint venture lithium terms with POSCO Holdings will realise it an upfront payment of $A1.2 billion for part of MIN's lithium business.
But with the ASX 200 share having rocketed higher over the past eight months, Locantro thinks further near-term gains appear limited.
He concluded:
MIN'S shares have risen from $14.40 on April 9 to trade at $51.90 on December 11. With most of the upside seemingly priced in and commodity cycles still volatile, it may be prudent to cash in some gains made on the strong share price recovery.
