Owning Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN) shares usually comes with a decent dividend yield. But, the more important question may be whether shareholders will see dividend raises or cuts in the coming years.
Following the divestment of Suncorp Bank to ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), Suncorp is now focused on being one of the largest insurers in Australia.
Insurance is not exactly known for being a consistent industry, so investors may need to be aware that dividends can bounce around. Let's see what analysts think could happen with the payments in the next few years.
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FY26
We're currently in the 2026 financial year, and the broker UBS expects Suncorp's FY26 net profit and dividend per share to fall significantly due to catastrophe costs that were higher than expected.
UBS expects Suncorp to overrun its FY26 catastrophe budget by around $580 million, despite previously adding additional conservatism to its FY26 catastrophe budget.
But, on a positive note, UBS suggest that recent weather events could "extend the positive home/motor pricing cycle".
Despite cutting its FY26 forecast earnings per share (EPS) for Suncorp by 31%, UBS still thinks Suncorp is a buy, with a price target of $22. The forecast profit for the year is $934 million.
UBS projects that Suncorp could pay an annual dividend per share of 66 cents. That translates into a potential grossed-up dividend yield of 5.5%, including franking credits.
FY27
The broker thinks the greater potential positive outlook for motor and home premiums can roll over to the 2027 financial year.
In FY27, UBS is expecting Suncorp to hike its annual dividend per share to 92 cents per share.
FY28
The 2028 financial year could see the business decide to hike the dividend again.
UBS has predicted that Suncorp could increase its payout to 97 cents per share in FY28.
FY29
UBS is forecasting that the insurance giant could hike its payout again for owners of Suncorp shares in the 2029 financial year.
In FY29, investors are predicted to see an annual dividend per share of $1.03.
FY30
The final year of this series of projections could see the business deliver investors an annual dividend per share of $1.09 in the 2030 financial year.
That translates into a possible grossed-up dividend yield of 9%, including franking credits.
Suncorp share price valuation
At the time of writing, Suncorp is valued at 20x FY26's estimated earnings. UBS says Suncorp shares are attractive because it's at a discount to its historical average, excluding the bank segment.
