Buy, hold, sell: Bapcor, Guzman Y Gomez, and NextDC

Let's see if analysts are tipping these shares as buys this week.

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Key points

  • Bapcor's shares have been under significant pressure following a second guidance downgrade, raising concerns about its earnings visibility and balance sheet, despite potential takeover speculation.
  • Guzman Y Gomez is riding high with positive reactions to its new BBQ Chicken Double Crunch offering, which could spur sales growth without added operational costs, keeping its outlook buoyant.
  • NextDC's collaboration with OpenAI on a Sydney data centre project highlights its strategic growth potential, prompting analysts to boost its target price amidst ongoing AI developments.

There are lots of ASX stocks to choose from on the Australian share market.

But which are buys, holds, and sells? Let's take a look at three popular options and see if analysts are bullish, bearish, or something in between. They are as follows:

Bapcor Ltd (ASX: BAP)

This auto parts retailer's shares have come under significant pressure this month after downgrading its guidance for a second time.

While Morgans feels that this share price weakness could make the company a takeover target again, it isn't enough for the broker to recommend Bapcor as a buy. Instead, it has put a hold rating and $1.95 price target on its shares.

Commenting on its recommendation, Morgans said:

Management reiterated confidence in a materially improved 2H (implied ~A$40m NPAT at the midpoint); however, the magnitude and timing of today's downgrade – coming shortly after the 20-Oct update – warrants some caution around 2H expectations. The balance sheet also appears to be a point of concern, with BAP in discussions with lenders for covenant relief in FY26, with our estimates for gearing potentially approaching/exceeding the current covenant of ~3.0x (MorgansF ~3.05x).

Given significant share price weakness, renewed corporate appeal may arise. However, absent a takeover, we view the investment case as challenged given the sharp deterioration in earnings visibility, ongoing staff turnover, margin pressure, market share losses, balance sheet risk, and anaemic sales growth.

Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG)

Morgans is more positive on this quick service restaurant operator and has named it as a buy with a $32.30 price target.

The broker feels that the burrito seller's latest limited-time offer could be a boost to sales growth and supportive of its margins. It said:

GYG has launched its latest limited-time offer (LTO): the BBQ Chicken Double Crunch (BBQ CDC). Early feedback suggests the item is one of GYG's more indulgent menu items and taste tests have been overwhelmingly positive. The product leverages existing ingredients, meaning no incremental complexity or cost for stores, a margin-friendly innovation that aligns with GYG's operational discipline. Management has repeatedly emphasised that menu innovation is a key lever for same-store sales (SSS) growth, and this launch reinforces that commitment. We reiterate our BUY rating.

Nextdc Ltd (ASX: NXT)

Over at Ord Minnett, its analysts were pleased with recent updates from this data centre operator.

In response, the broker has retained its buy rating on NextDC's shares with an improved price target of $20.50.

Commenting on its deal with ChatGPT owner, OpenAI, it said:

Ord Minnett also sees upside from the agreement between NextDC (NXT) and Open AI, whose ChatGPT product is the most popular of the artificial intelligence apps, to collaborate on the development and operation of the Australian company's S7 data centre site at Eastern Creek in Sydney's west where it plans to build a hyperscale AI campus and a large 'supercluster' of GPUs (graphics processing units). ‍

We have raised our target price on NextDC to $20.50 from $19.00 to incorporate our assumed value of the agreement with Open AI, although we have not yet changed our earnings estimates due to the lack of detail and operational timelines. We reiterate our Buy recommendation.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Nextdc. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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