NextDC shares drop 23% from their peak: Buying opportunity or sign to sell-up?

The tech stock has suffered amid the sector-wide sell off over the past couple of months.

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Key points

  • NextDC shares have experienced significant volatility this year, peaking with a near 80% rise due to strong financial results and demand for cloud computing, but have since decreased by 23.6% amid tech sector sell-offs.
  • Despite current market challenges, NextDC is well-positioned for growth with ambitious expansion plans, including new data centre facilities expected to drive recurring revenue and capitalise on digital infrastructure demands.
  • Analysts unanimously recommend buying NextDC shares, projecting substantial upside potential, supported by recent positive developments such as partnerships with major AI players like OpenAI for high-capacity data centres.

Nextdc Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares traded in the red again on Tuesday afternoon. At the time of writing, the Australian data centre operator's shares are down 2.93% to $13.74 a piece.

It's been a volatile year for the high-growth company. The tech stock soared nearly 80% from a multi-year low in April to an annual high of $17.99 in mid-September. The soaring share price came in leaps following solid financial results in April and August. The company also experienced a flurry in contract wins and elevated demand for data-centre capacity.

But since that September peak, tech stocks have come off the boil and face continual headwinds. And the turn in sentiment has forced the Nextdc share price down 23.6% to the time of writing.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) is down 22.7% over the same period. ASX tech stock losses have come amid building concern about the durability of the surge in AI shares. Meanwhile, following some underwhelming updates from some of the ASX tech majors, analysts are worried that valuations are overstretched. The concern is leading investors to re-evaluation their appetite for exposure in the sector.

What does this mean about the future for NextDC shares?

The good news is, that as a company with a network-rich connectivity ecosystem, NextDC is well-positioned to experience strong growth prospects going forward. 

And it has significant growth plans in the pipeline too. The company is bringing major new facilities coming online across key markets. Each one of these typically ramps up utilisation over several years, which helps to drive a recurring revenue higher without steep costs.

I think the latest tech sector sell-off has been overdone, but it also presents a great buying opportunity to buy high-quality stocks like NextDC at a great price.

Is there upside ahead?

There is a consensus among analysts that NextDC shares are a great buy right now. 

TradingView data shows that all 14 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the shares with a maximum target price of $28.89. That's a potential upside of a huge 110.34% at the time of writing.

Analysts at Ord Minnett recently revealed that they've retained their buy rating on NextDC shares, and raised its target price to $20.59. In a note to investors, the broker said it is pleased to see that NextDC has signed a memorandum of understanding with ChatGPT's owner OpenAI for its proposed S7 data centre in Eastern Creek, Sydney. This centre will be a hyperscale AI campus and the largest in the southern hemisphere with 650MW capacity.

Morgans is also bullish on the company and upgraded its shares to a buy rating with a $19.00 price target earlier this month. The broker said it sees significant upside potential for investors between now and this time next year.

The team at Macquarie are also big fans of the ASX 200 tech stock. They hold an outperform rating and $20.90 price target on its shares. 

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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