Looking for a large-cap ASX healthcare share that's forecast to deliver some potentially outsized gains in 2026?
Then you might want to have a look into Summerset Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: SNZ).
The dual-listed New Zealand based company develops, owns, and operates integrated retirement villages in New Zealand and Australia.
Summerset shares closed yesterday trading for $11.09. In thin trade today, shares are down 1.7%, trading for $10.90 apiece (or NZ$11.75 on the NZX.)
This sees the ASX healthcare share commanding a market cap of NZ$2.98 billion, or AU$3.43 billion.
Summerset shares struggled for much of the year and remain down 9.2% in 2025. But the stock has been on the rebound trail since early October, with shares now up 15.7% from the 3 October close.
And according to the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), the year ahead should see the Summerset share price continue to charge higher.
Herer's why.
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In a new report covering the New Zealand retirement village sector, Macquarie cites research from JLL noting that 1,800 retirement units were built in the nation over the 2024 calendar year.
According to Macquarie:
This takes total RV stock to ~43,600 (ex care), which is equivalent to a 14.7% penetration rate for people aged 75+ based on cohabitation rates and not excluding those which will reside in care
Looking to the growth market ahead for ASX healthcare share Summerset, the broker said, "Demographic tailwinds remain strong which will underpin execution of development pipeline across the sector while a shortfall will exist."
Macquarie noted:
Over the next decade, a further ~175k people will enter the 75+ demographic which based on current penetration would make up around 2,000 units p.a. of incremental demand (net, while gross will be higher with decommissions), or a 3.8% CAGR.
Out of the listed retirement village developers and operators in New Zealand, Macquarie said, "We think Summerset has the most upside given track record of development execution."
The broker has a 12-month price target of NZ$16.00 on Summerset shares. That's 33.0% above the current share price on the NZX.
As for risks that could see the dual-listed ASX healthcare share struggle to achieve those gains, Macquarie noted those include "quantum and speed of improvement in housing market conditions, and associated impact on sales including St Johns".
Macquarie added, "Success and speed of ramp-up in Australia is a key driver of growth in the medium to long term."
