ASX mining stocks have been on fire lately, with rising global commodity prices and booming demand pushing share prices higher.
Two major companies grabbing headline attention recently are iron ore mining giant Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) and diversified base metal miner South32 Ltd (ASX: S32). Both miners have enjoyed a steep share price uptick over the past 6 months. But when it comes to 2026, it looks like only one ASX mining stock is tipped to continue climbing.
Are Fortescue shares a buy?
At the time of writing on Tuesday morning, Fortescue shares are 0.59% higher at $22.21 a piece. Over the past 6 months, the stock has rocketed 41.7% higher and is now up 18.05% for the year to date.
The iron ore mining giant's shares have been boosted by the recent resilience of the global iron ore price. Iron Ore fell to US$106.42 per tonne yesterday, down 0.76% from the previous day. Over the past month, Iron ore's price has risen 2.36%, and is up 0.08% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity.
In its September quarter results, the miner reported that it had increased its total iron ore shipments up 4% to a new record level. Fortescue also said that for FY26, it is sticking to its guidance of 195–205Mt in total shipments, and plans to keep costs tight.
It's been a great year for the iron ore miner, and its share price has reaped a hefty reward. But I'm concerned that as a miner which is so reliant on the iron ore industry, any pull-pack in iron ore prices over the next 12 months could be devastating for the business.
Analysts are on the fence too. TradingView data shows the majority have a hold rating (9 out of 15) on Fortescue shares. Another 5 have a sell or strong sell rating. The average target price for the shares is $19.02, although some think it could fall to $16.20 over the next 12 months. This implies a potential downside as large as 26.9%, at the time of writing.
Are South32 shares a buy?
At the time of writing on Tuesday morning, South32 shares are down 0.15% to $3.40 each. Over the past 6 months, the stock price has climbed 12.01%, but unlike Fortescue, South32 shares are currently trading 1.73% lower than they were at the beginning of the year.
In its September quarterly report, the producer reported another strong period of operating performance. Its production highlights included a 12% increase on payable copper at Sierra Gorda, and a 33% uplift in manganese volumes. South32 has kept its FY26 production guidance unchanged across all of its operations.
Unlike Fortescue, which is heavily focused on iron ore, South32 produces essential base metals and minerals like aluminium, copper, zinc, and many others. The BHP spin-off is also focused on high-quality, low-cost assets and is transitioning towards critical metals for the energy transition.
It's this diversity that means the company is well positioned to benefit from rising demand and prices of a range of different metals and minerals. It also means the business is able to hedge itself against volatility in any one market.
Analysts are bullish on the ASX mining stock, too. Data shows 9 out of 14 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on South32's shares. The maximum target price is $3.91, which implies a potential 14.4% upside ahead for investors, at the time of writing.
Which is the better ASX mining stock right now?
It looks clear to me that South32 shares have a much better potential for growth compared to Fortescue shares. While both have benefitted from the latest rally in global commodity pricing, South32's diversity helps and growth plans mean it looks like a better investment opportunity for investors right now.
