BHP shares surge 8% on their way to reclaiming the No. 1 title from CBA

BHP may be on its way to reclaiming the ASX 200's No. 1 spot as CBA shares continue their steep decline.

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Key points

  • BHP, alongside Fortescue and Rio Tinto, achieved new 52-week highs last week, driven by increases in iron ore and copper prices, with BHP benefiting from its position as the world's largest copper producer and a rise in coking coal prices.
  • After last week's 7.61% share price surge, BHP is approaching the market capitalisation of Commonwealth Bank, positioning it to reclaim its title as Australia's most valuable listed company as CBA shares continue to decline.
  • Analyst ratings on BHP are mixed; while JP Morgan and Citi hold a neutral stance with a price target of $46.27, both Ord Minnett and Morgan Stanley provide more optimistic buy ratings, projecting further increases in share price.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares rose 7.61% last week to close at a new 52-week high of $44.84 on Friday.

The market's largest mining stock was not alone in this feat.

Fellow ASX 200 heavyweight iron ore shares Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) also hit new 52-week highs.

The Fortescue share price rose 3.27% to close at a 52-week high of $22.11 on Friday.

Rio Tinto shares reached a new 52-week high of $140.58 on Thursday and closed 4.68% higher for the week at $138.47 apiece.

The market's largest pure-play copper stock, Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR), also reached a record high of $17.20 on Thursday.

Commodity prices push miners higher

Stronger iron ore and copper prices pushed these four ASX 200 mining shares to new price milestones last week.

Iron ore rose 2.9% to US$107.88 per tonne.

That may not sound like a big price increase, however, it's significant given the overall year-to-date (YTD) gain is only 4.1%.

Copper futures rose 4% to US$5.40 per pound on Friday, up a stunning 35.5% for the year.

Stronger iron ore and copper prices are particularly positive for BHP and Rio Tinto shares.

Both miners have significantly expanded their copper operations, with BHP now the world's largest copper producer.

BHP also has high-quality metallurgical coal operations, and the coking coal price lifted 6% last week to US$209.50 per tonne.

Meanwhile, other tailwinds for Rio Tinto shares are rising aluminium and lithium prices, up 14% and 25%, respectively, in the YTD.

Rio Tinto also promised investors a 'stronger, sharper, and simpler' business model in a strategy update last week.

Boosted BHP share price moves miner closer to No 1. spot

BHP is not only the largest mining share but also the second biggest company by market capitalisation on the ASX 200.

Last week's share price surge has potentially put BHP on a path to overtaking Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) as Australia's most valuable listed company.

If this occurs, it would be a reclamation for BHP shares.

CBA took the title in July last year after an unprecedented share price surge made it the world's most valuable bank stock.

CBA shares are now in a steep correction.

The CBA share price has plummeted almost 20% from a record $192 apiece in late June to $154.21 on Friday.

Now, just $30 billion of market cap separates BHP ($228 billion) and CBA shares ($258 billion) at the top of the ASX 200 table.

BHP vs. CBA shares: what do the experts say?

Most major brokers have a neutral or buy rating on BHP shares with minimal share price growth projected over the next 12 months.

Last week, JP Morgan reiterated a hold rating on BHP and raised its 12-month share price target from $42.25 to $46.27.

Citi also placed a hold rating on the ASX 200 mining stock with a price target of $46.27.

Ord Minnett has a buy rating on BHP shares with a price target of $45.

Morgan Stanley also gives the 'Big Australian' a buy rating. The broker predicts the BHP share price will lift to $48 by this time next year.

Conversely, most brokers have a sell rating on CBA shares.

Morgans has a sell rating on CBA with a share price target of $96.07. This suggests a potential 38% downside over the next 12 months.

Ord Minnett has a sell rating with a price target of $105 on CBA shares. Jarden says sell with a target of $100.

UBS says sell with a target of $125 and Goldman Sachs also gives a sell rating with a target of $132.84.

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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