The gold price has enjoyed a remarkable run higher in 2025, helping most every S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold share deliver outsized gains.
At the time of writing on Monday, the yellow metal is trading for $4,208 per ounce. That sees bullion up more than 60% year to date.
2025 has seen the gold price smash new record highs more than 50 times, with gold setting its latest all-time high of more than US$4,356 per ounce on 20 October.
As for ASX gold shares, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) has rocketed a jaw-dropping 101.2% so far in 2025, racing ahead of the 4.9% year-to-date gains delivered by the ASX 200.
As for some of the biggest ASX gold shares, the Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price has gained 67.9% this calendar year; Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares have gained 124.3%; and the Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price is up 145.1% in 2025.
With this brilliant picture in mind, what can ASX investors expect in the year ahead?
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Will the gold price and ASX gold shares keep surging in 2026?
For some greater insight into this million-dollar question, we defer to the World Gold Council (WGC), which just released its 2026 outlook report.
Noting that this year marks the fourth-strongest annual returns for the gold price since 1971, the WGC said, "Two macro forces stood out as drivers: a supercharged geopolitical and geoeconomic environment, and US-dollar weakness coupled with marginally lower interest rates."
These factors have helped lift bullion since gold is priced in US dollars. And as the yellow metal pays no yield itself, it tends to perform better in low or falling interest rate environments. Gold's haven status has also been on clear display amid heightened global uncertainty and tensions.
As for what's next for the gold price, the WGC offered three potential scenarios.
In the bearish case of gold and ASX gold shares, the WGC noted:
Stronger-than-expected growth and rising inflation would push yields and the US dollar higher, triggering a rotation into risk assets. With hedges unwound and retail demand softening, gold could correct 5%–20% from current levels.
In the "moderately bullish" case for gold investors, the WGC said:
A mild economic slowdown, characterised by lower interest rates, a softer US dollar and rising risk aversion, could support moderate gains for gold. In this environment, gold could rise 5%–15% in 2026, depending on the depth of the slowdown and the pace of Fed rate cuts.
As for the bullish scenario, the World Gold Council said:
A deeper downturn marked by sharply falling yields, elevated geopolitical stress and a pronounced flight to safety would create exceptionally strong tailwinds for gold. Under this scenario, gold could surge 15%–30% in 2026.
The analysts noted that other factors, including central bank demand and gold recycling trends, could also influence the market for the precious metal.
"Most importantly, gold's role as a portfolio diversifier and source of stability remains key amid continued market volatility," they said.
All considered, the WGC concluded that in 2026 "the forces of softer growth, accommodative policy, and persistent geopolitical risks" are more likely to support a higher gold price, and by connection ASX gold shares, than not.
