Two popular S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) media shares – REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA) and Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC) – are hovering around year-to-date lows.
While the drivers are different, both ASX 200 media shares are facing a mix of structural headwinds, regulatory pressure, and investor re-rating.
Let's take a closer look at both media companies and find out whether analysts consider the recent downturn a chance to buy at lower prices.
REA Group Ltd
The share price of REA Group, the owner of realestate.com.au, has tumbled 20% in the past six months and 9.7% in the past month to $192.41 at the time of writing.
The decrease appears to be more about sentiment and future growth expectations than a collapse in fundamentals. On paper, the long-term business of this ASX 200 media share remains operationally strong. REA Group dominates its market, the pricing model is powerful, and earnings are still growing.
However, there are a few reasons why investors are selling their REA Group shares. The company recently reported a decline in new national listings, and in May, the ACCC launched a probe into REA's pricing practices.
Competition for REA could also be fiercer after competitor Domain was acquired by CoStar Group Inc (NASDAQ: CSGP) in August.
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Morgans recently cut its target price for the next 12 months to $247. This is a little higher than the average price target set by analysts and indicates a 28% upside from its current share price.
Analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) recently sliced their 12-month target to $220 because of uncertainty around AI, increased competition, and the ACCC regulatory investigation.
Macquarie's target is on the low side, suggesting an upside of 14%.
Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd
Nine Entertainment's share price drop was mainly technical, linked to a special dividend paid after selling its 60% stake in Domain in May. On the ex-dividend date (11 September), the ASX 200 media share fell sharply by 34% to reflect this payout.
Beyond the special dividend, the media company is also battling a weaker business outlook. Analysts are particularly concerned about Nine's reliance on its television business, which is vulnerable to a softer advertising market. That has been a reason for some brokers to cut revenue estimates for 2026 from $2.7 billion to $2.3 billion.
In the past 6 months, Nine Entertainment shares have lost 30.5% in value. At the time of writing, the media stock trades at $1.11 per share, almost 11% lower than a year ago.
The main challenge for Nine Entertainment will be to stabilise earnings with its core television and radio assets and deliver growth through digital platforms, such as Stan.
The research team at Macquarie said they remained cautious with regard to free-to-air television advertising spending, "and the need to constantly manage costs to support earnings".
In recent weeks, most analysts have downgraded their price targets to an average of $1.44, suggesting a 28% upside at the current share price. The majority of analysts still rate the media stock a hold or buy, mainly due to the weaker share price.
