Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are edging lower today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock closed yesterday trading for $27.11. In early morning trade on Wednesday, shares are swapping hands for $26.97 apiece, down 0.5%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.2% at this same time.
With today's intraday dip factored in, Northern Star shares have gained 74.6% in 2025, racing ahead of the 4.9% year-to-date gains posted by the benchmark index.
Atop those capital gains, the ASX 200 gold stock also trades on a fully franked 2% trailing dividend yield.
The company's roaring share price gains this year have been partly driven by the rocketing gold price. Gold is currently trading for US$4,206 per ounce, up 60% since this time last year.
Investors have also been buying the ASX gold miner amid its own operational successes, including its recent acquisition of De Grey Mining, completed in May.
Of course, those gains have come and gone.
Which brings us back to our headline question…
Are Northern Star shares a buy right now?
Red Leaf Securities' John Athanasiou recently ran his slide rule over the ASX 200 gold miner (courtesy of The Bull).
"This gold miner has solid fundamentals, strong cash flows and a growing project pipeline, but upside is tempered by key risks," said Athanasiou.
He noted:
Major growth projects, including KCGM (Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines) mill expansion and the Hemi development are capital intensive with execution uncertainty. Costs are under pressure, and earnings remain exposed to volatile gold prices, which increases uncertainty.
With those risks in mind, Athanasiou isn't ready to pull the trigger to buy Northern Star shares just yet.
"Until a clearer picture emerges in relation to project delivery and commodity stability, a hold position is prudent," he concluded.
What's happening with the ASX 200 gold miner's growth projects?
Commenting on the projects that are intended to deliver long-term growth for Northern Star shares at the company's AGM in November, chairman Michael Chaney said:
A major achievement during the year, and one that sets Northern Star up for long term success, was the acquisition of De Grey Mining Ltd and its Hemi Development Project, which is one of the largest existing, undeveloped gold projects in a world-class jurisdiction.
We look forward to bringing Hemi into production over the next few years.
As for KCCM, Chaney noted that despite more challenging geotechnical conditions encountered at the project, "FY25 also saw strong progress on the KCGM Mill Expansion Project on which we expect to begin commissioning in mid calendar year 2026."
He added, "This will allow us to progressively increase ore throughput from KCGM's current rate of 13 million tonnes to 27 million tonnes from FY29."
