Big returns could be on the cards for buyers of PEXA Group Ltd (ASX: PXA) shares.
That's the view of analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), which are feeling positive about this ASX tech stock.
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What is the broker saying?
Macquarie has been looking at recent housing market data that could impact this property settlements technology company.
It highlights that settlement activity has been growing at a solid rate in recent months, albeit with NSW volumes softening in November. The broker said:
NSW settlement activity was up +4.4% on pcp in Nov-25, a deterioration vs Oct-25 (+17.6%) and Sep-25 (+12.9%), while QLD activity in Oct-25 (latest available) was up +8.2% on pcp ahead of Sep-25 (+3.8%). By applying 75/25% weighting to NSW and QLD data (reflecting the number of dwellings in NSW/VIC vs QLD), total estimated national activity was up +15.5% in Oct-25, the strongest month of activity in 18 months. Our weighted average index is >95% correlated with PXA reported market volumes and is tracking at +7.1% YTD26 vs MRE +2.8% in 1H26E.
Transfer activity (on a weighted avg basis) was up +16.6% in Oct-25, the strongest month since Jul-24 (+19.4%). Refinancing activity remains robust at +15.1% in Oct-25, albeit weaker than the prior month at +24.9% and the last 6 months at +21.6%.
Big potential returns
In light of the above, Macquarie remains positive on this ASX tech stock and believes it is positioned to achieve its earnings estimates in FY 2026.
According to the note, the broker is forecasting revenue of $426.1 million and an adjusted net profit of $13.8 million in FY 2026, and then an increase to $470.8 million and $25.4 million, respectively, in FY 2027.
As a result, Macquarie has reaffirmed its outperform rating and $19.10 price target on Pexa's shares.
Based on its current share price of $14.31, this implies potential upside of almost 35% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its outperform recommendation, the broker said:
Reiterate Outperform. Formal commitment from additional Tier-1 lenders is likely to incentivise the other four Tier-1 lenders to onboard with PXA quickly, driving rapid market share gains.
Valuation: Our TP of $19.10 remains unchanged and is based on the blended average of DCF, PE Relative and SOTP valuations. Catalysts: Tier-1 lender commitments, Digital strategic review, NatWest onboarding 2H26, IPART pricing review 2H26.
