If you are on the hunt for some big returns, then it could be worth listening to what Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is saying.
That's because the broker has just named one quality ASX 200 stock as a buy with potential to deliver huge returns over the next 12 months.
Which ASX 200 stock?
The stock that Macquarie is recommending to clients is online furniture and homewares retailer Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW).
Its shares have fallen approximately 25% since this time last month, which the broker feels has created a buying opportunity for investors.
Macquarie has blamed consumer weakness on Temple & Webster's slowing growth in the first half of FY 2026. And with rate cuts now expected to boost spending, it feels that peak weakness could have passed. It said:
We think consumer weakness was the primary drag on TPW's Revenue Growth (which slowed to +14% over the past 14 weeks, from +28% in the first 8 weeks of 1H26), given similar slowdowns were seen in other retail trading updates (e.g., ADH), and weakness in furniture spend in our High Frequency Consumer Data (HFCD) over 3Q25 (-2% YoY).
However, we think the two-month lagged positive impact of the Aug-25 rate-cut (to consumer cash flow) may emerge to support demand over the peak Christmas trading period. Indeed, HFCD improved to +5% YoY growth over Oct-25, and Google Search interest for TPW is showing increasing strength YoY into Nov-25. Whilst the peak of retail weakness (Sep-25) may have passed, we encourage investors to look through volatility to longer-term market share growth tailwinds supporting TPW's top-line.
Big potential returns
According to the note, the broker has retained its outperform rating on the ASX 200 stock with a reduced price target of $24.15.
Based on its current share price of $14.39, this implies potential upside of almost 70% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its recommendation, Macquarie said:
We maintain Outperform. TPW's market share will benefit from tailwinds around increasing AOVs, Trade & Home Improvement market penetration and overall online retail uptake. We encourage investors to look through short-term fluctuations in consumer sentiment to a positive outlook.
Valuation: -23% TP reduction to $24.15 (from $31.30), but maintain Outperform after significant share price fall (-32%), with our TP still implying significant shareholder upside (TSR: +74.6%). Catalysts: Rate-cuts, improved revenue growth & greater operating leverage, Macquarie High Frequency consumer data, Wayfair results.
