If you are on the hunt for some big returns, then it could be worth listening to what Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is saying.
That's because the broker has just named one quality ASX 200 stock as a buy with potential to deliver huge returns over the next 12 months.
Image source: Getty Images
Which ASX 200 stock?
The stock that Macquarie is recommending to clients is online furniture and homewares retailer Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW).
Its shares have fallen approximately 25% since this time last month, which the broker feels has created a buying opportunity for investors.
Macquarie has blamed consumer weakness on Temple & Webster's slowing growth in the first half of FY 2026. And with rate cuts now expected to boost spending, it feels that peak weakness could have passed. It said:
We think consumer weakness was the primary drag on TPW's Revenue Growth (which slowed to +14% over the past 14 weeks, from +28% in the first 8 weeks of 1H26), given similar slowdowns were seen in other retail trading updates (e.g., ADH), and weakness in furniture spend in our High Frequency Consumer Data (HFCD) over 3Q25 (-2% YoY).
However, we think the two-month lagged positive impact of the Aug-25 rate-cut (to consumer cash flow) may emerge to support demand over the peak Christmas trading period. Indeed, HFCD improved to +5% YoY growth over Oct-25, and Google Search interest for TPW is showing increasing strength YoY into Nov-25. Whilst the peak of retail weakness (Sep-25) may have passed, we encourage investors to look through volatility to longer-term market share growth tailwinds supporting TPW's top-line.
Big potential returns
According to the note, the broker has retained its outperform rating on the ASX 200 stock with a reduced price target of $24.15.
Based on its current share price of $14.39, this implies potential upside of almost 70% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its recommendation, Macquarie said:
We maintain Outperform. TPW's market share will benefit from tailwinds around increasing AOVs, Trade & Home Improvement market penetration and overall online retail uptake. We encourage investors to look through short-term fluctuations in consumer sentiment to a positive outlook.
Valuation: -23% TP reduction to $24.15 (from $31.30), but maintain Outperform after significant share price fall (-32%), with our TP still implying significant shareholder upside (TSR: +74.6%). Catalysts: Rate-cuts, improved revenue growth & greater operating leverage, Macquarie High Frequency consumer data, Wayfair results.
