The big four bank stocks are royalty on the ASX.
Between them, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) make up almost a quarter of the weighted S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). These four banks are also the largest, and third, fourth, and fifth-largest stocks on the index, respectively.
Given this importance to the Australian stock market, its index funds, and by extension, our super funds, many investors have a keen interest in the valuations of these banks. As well as their dividend yields, of course.
As it happens, the valuations of three of these big four banks have soared over the past two years, most notably CBA. CBA has been the envy of the ASX for those investors who don't directly own its shares, rising from under $100 in November 2023 to the peak of $192 that we saw in June of this year.
ANZ was the standout, rising far more modestly over this period than it peers. Saying that, investors have enjoyed a surge in buying over the past few months, with this bank up more than 27% since June. Perhaps the market has been playing catch-up.
Luckily for investors eyeing off the big four banks stocks of the ASX today, analysts at Macquarie have just run the ruler over this sector. Let's see what they found.
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How does Macquarie rate CBA and the other ASX bank stocks today?
Looking at the results of Macquarie's analysis, it's not hard to see why ANZ shares have been lagging compared to its peers. Analysts found that ANZ only managed to increase its underlying pre-provision earnings by 0.2% between the 2024 and 2025 financial years. That compares to 5.5%, 3.4% and 3.2% for CBA, NAB and Westpac, respectively. ANZ's pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) fell 3.2% over the same period, while CBA and NAB grew theirs by 4.4% and 1.7% (Westpac's was flat).
However, it's not all bad news for ANZ. Macquarie found that this bank managed to keep the tightest lid on expense growth over the period, at 3.3%. That compared to CBA's 6.9%, NAB's 5.3% and Westpac's 6.4%.
Unfortunately for bank enthusiasts, Macquarie's analysts don't see much upside ahead for any of the four major ASX banks. The team has given 'neutral ratings' to ANZ and NAB, and 'underperform' ratings for CBA and Westpac.
For ANZ and NAB, analysts have come up with 12-month share price targets of $35 and $39, respectively. Both are down from where the shares are today. In CBA and Westpac's case, we have share price targets of $106 and $31. That would see investors lose roughly 30% and 15% from current levels.
There is a silver lining for dividend investors, though.
Macquarie is still predicting that three out of the four majors will either hold their dividends steady until the 2028 financial year (Westpac), or else deliver modest rises (CBA and ANZ). Unfortunately for NAB investors, analysts see $1.70 in annual dividends per share over FY2026, dropping to $1.50 per share over FY2027 and FY2028.
