This ASX 200 media share has been knocked around for years. On Tuesday, Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC) went to a new 5-year low at $1.09 per share.
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Advertising shift to Google and Meta
The media group behind Channel 9, Stan, The Sydney Morning Herald and Australian Financial Review has seen its share price gradually sink to multi-year lows. The reason for the downfall of the ASX 200 media share is weakening advertising demand and a bleak outlook for traditional media.
The intense shift of advertising dollars to global tech giants such as Google and Meta continues to threaten Australian media groups like Nine Entertainment.
Analysts are particularly concerned about Nine's reliance on its television business, which is vulnerable to a decline in the advertising market.
In its latest trading update on 7 November, the board of the media company flagged that the TV advertising market remains soft and short for the run into Christmas. This will impact revenues in both September and October and has been a reason for some brokers to cut revenue estimates for 2026 from $2.7 billion to $2.3 billion.
Strong multimedia brands
Yet, most analysts argue that the sell-off has gone too far. Nine may be better positioned for recovery than the market currently believes.
Founded as a free-to-air broadcaster, Nine Entertainment has evolved into a multimedia business, spanning television, print, radio, digital publishing, streaming and events. The ASX 200 media share has diversified revenue streams, strong brands and a comparatively healthy balance sheet.
Nine's biggest strength remains audience reach and brand trust. Across news, entertainment and sport, the company maintains national visibility. That's something that advertisers continue to value, even in softer markets.
Digital buffers traditional TV
Nine says its digital and subscription arms, particularly through 9Now and Stan, have helped to cushion declines in traditional TV advertising.
Operating efficiencies introduced over the past 18 months have also supported cash generation. As a result, Nine management expects further EBITDA growth in the first half of FY26 compared to H1 FY25.
What do analysts say?
After a bruising year, Nine Entertainment is no guaranteed turnaround story. The advertising market may not rebound quickly, and streaming competition won't be any easier for Nine Entertainment.
Most analysts don't think that Nine's share price will go much lower than what it is now. In the past 6 months the ASX 200 media share has lost 30.4% in value and compared to the end of August the share price is even 72.5% lower. The majority of the brokers see Nine Entertainment at this low price level as a buy.
However, in recent weeks, most brokers did downgrade their 12-months price target to an average of $1.44, which suggests a 32% upside at the current share price. This may be the moment for value-focused investors to tune back in.
