Orica Limited (ASX: ORI) is an ASX 200 stock that has already risen more than 40% in 2025.
For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Financials (ASX: XFJ) index has risen by roughly 5% in the same span.
Orica is a global manufacturer and supplier of explosives and blasting systems, primarily to the mining industry.
It is the world's number one supplier of commercial explosives. The company has operations across more than 100 countries and an approximate market share of around 28%.
Despite already rising significantly this year, the team at Ord Minnett have raised its price target on this ASX 200 stock.
This comes after Orica posted its highest earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) in more than a decade.
So, how much further can this ASX 200 stock rise?
Here's Ord Minnett's view.
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Orica Limited benefiting from solid demand
In a note from the team at Ord Minnett yesterday, this ASX 200 stock met market expectations when it reported its highest earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) in more than a decade for FY25.
According to the broker, this was underpinned by:
- Solid demand for its specialty chemicals and explosives products
- Tighter cost control
- A more balanced supply-demand equation in the ammonium nitrate market.
The company, which added another $100 million to its share buyback program, guided to FY26 EBIT growth "across all segments." This was buoyed by strong fundamentals in the gold and copper sectors. These sectors make up around half of its group sales.
The ASX 200 stock also firmed up its divisional medium-term outlook as follows:
- Blasting solutions – EBIT growth is now expected above that of GDP "through the mining cycle", supported by improved product mix, wider margins, earnings and technology benefits, up from previous guidance of just 'growth';
- Digital solutions – Growth in EBIT is now forecast to be in the mid-teens, up from low double-digits previously, as customer adoption accelerates and exploration activity increases; and
- Specialty chemicals – EBIT growth is now guided to be in the high single digits, up from mid-single digits previously, buoyed by strong mining sector activity, especially in the gold industry.
Target price upgrade for ASX 200 stock
Yesterday, the Orica share price rose almost 1.5% to close trading at $23.35.
Based on the above guidance from Ord Minnett, the broker has now upgraded its price target to $26.00 and raised EPS estimates.
It has also maintained its buy recommendation.
This updated price target indicates an upside of 11.35%.
Post the result, we have raised our EPS estimates by 2.1%, 2.3% and 8.5% for FY26, FY27 and FY28, respectively, to incorporate higher earnings assumptions for the specialty chemicals and blasting solutions divisions, which leads us to raise our target price to $26.00 from $23.00.
