Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) has been one of the standout performers on the ASX this year – and for obvious reasons. The ASX 200 gold company's share price has increased by more than 65% in 2025.
Global gold player
The Perth-based gold miner has grown into a $38 billion global producer. In FY 2025, Northern Star delivered very chunky results. It operates two world-class operations in Western Australia and Alaska and retained investors' attention with acquisitions to add scale.
The gold producer recently acquired the Hemi development project in the Pilbara through its takeover of De Grey Mining. This offers Northern Star a future income stream. It also stepped up its investments in the expansion of the KCGM mill in Kalgoorlie.
Northern Star is a classic mid-to-large cap mining story. It has benefitted directly from an increasing gold price, managed to convert that tailwind into real cash flows and used scale to become a popular ASX 200 gold share for investors looking for gold exposure with a relatively mature operating base.
Familiar caveats
The caveats for Northern Star are familiar: commodity cyclicality and execution risk. Today's share developments make that clear. At the time of writing, the ASX gold share is changing hands for $25.80 apiece, down 2.7%. The reason for the decline is the gold price that fell overnight.
The appeal of gold as a safe haven remains strong during times of geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic risk. America's biggest bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), and French bank Societe Generale SA say the gold price could exceed US$5,000 per ounce next year.
The current gold price dropped overnight by 0.35% to US$4,069 per ounce, so analysts believe there's room to grow.
What do analysts think?
Despite this year's dream run, most analysts still see Northern Star as a buy. Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has an outperform rating and a $30 price target on the ASX stock.
Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of almost 17% for investors over the next 12 months. The broker is also forecasting a 2% dividend yield in FY 2026, boosting the total potential return to 19%.
Morgans also has an accumulate rating on Northern Star shares, but is a little less optimistic than the team at Macquarie.
The broker expects the Northern Star Resources share price to lift to $27.41 by this time next year.
NST delivered a softer (but well flagged) quarterly result with unit costs surprising to the upside despite lower than forecast ounce production. FY26 guidance was reiterated, we expect production rates to continue to lift quarter on quarter.
