S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) mining stock FireFly Metals Ltd (ASX: FFM) is leaping higher today.
Shares in the copper-gold focused miner closed yesterday trading for $1.70. As we head into the Wednesday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $1.75 apiece, up 2.9%.
For some context, the ASX 300 is just about flat at this same time.
Today's outperformance is par for the course for FireFly over the past two years.
The ASX 300 mining stock, which is focused on advancing its high-grade Green Bay Copper-Gold Project in Newfoundland, Canada, has benefited both from its own operational successes as well as the soaring gold and copper prices.
With today's intraday boost factored in, FireFly shares are up 96.6% year to date and up a whopping 157.4% from the recent 9 April closing lows.
And according to the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), the miner's bull run has a goodly way to run yet.
Here's why.
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ASX 300 mining stock lifts copper and gold reserves
On Tuesday, FireFly released an update on its Green Bay Copper-Gold Project, revealing a material Mineral Resource increase.
The ASX 300 mining stock reported that the new Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) now stands at 50.4 million tonnes (Mt) at 2.0% for 1Mt copper equivalent (CuEq) in the higher confidence Measured and Indicated (M&I) classifications.
FireFly also reported an additional 29.3Mt @ 2.5% for 722,000 tonnes of CuEq in the Inferred category. This marks a 35% boost in tonnes and a 51% increase in CuEq metal from the Mineral Resource Estimate FireFly announced on 29 October 2024.
The miner added:
Copper remains the dominant metal in the MRE (863kt M&I plus 566kt Inferred Resources) with gold forming an important by-product (546koz M&I plus 563koz Inferred Resources). Silver is also present in significant quantities in the latest MRE (5.0Moz M&I plus 4.8Moz Inferred Resources).
"This outstanding result cements Green Bay's status as one of the most compelling copper development projects in the world," FireFly managing director Steve Parsons said.
Macquarie boosts price FireFly share price target by 35%
In a new report on the ASX 300 mining stock, Size Matters, Macquarie said:
Significant lift in our Mining Inventory forecasts: Following the resource update we lift our Mining Inventory by 81% from 30Mt to 54.5Mt. Our Mining Inventory is based on 100% of Measured and Indicated (M&I) resource and 30% of Inferred resources along with a 5% grade dilution assumption which results in Mining Inventory of 54.4Mt at 1.7%/0.5g/t Cu/Au, for 921kt/813koz of contained Cu/Au.
The broker also expects that FireFly's Green Bay project could run for significantly longer than previously forecast.
According to Macquarie:
Could underpin a longer life, larger scale project capable of ~60ktpa: We had previously forecast a 15-yr mine life at 32ktpa, but following the MRE update we upsize our throughput assumptions from 2Mtpa to 3.5Mtpa from year four onwards as keeping 2Mtpa into perpetuity would result in a ~27-yr mine life. Our upsized throughput assumption drives an increase in copper production to 59ktpa and results in a mine life of 17-yrs.
Connecting the dots, Macquarie maintained its outperform rating on the ASX 300 mining stock, noting the Green Bay has the potential to become "a globally significant copper project which could attract corporate appeal".
The broker raised its 12-month target price on FireFly shares by 35% to $2.30.
That represents a potential upside of 31.4% from current levels.
