Two major names on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) – REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA) and Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC) – are trading not far from year-to-date lows.
While the drivers are different, both ASX 200 media shares are facing a mix of structural headwinds, regulatory pressure and investor re-rating.
Let's dive into the two media companies and see if analysts rate the current weakness as a buy-the-dip opportunity.
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REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)
The share price of REA Group, the owner of realestate.com.au, has nearly fallen 20% in the past six months and 7.8% in the past month to $199.70 at the time of writing.
The drop appears to be more about sentiment and future growth expectations than a collapse in fundamentals. On paper, the long-term business of this ASX 200 company remains operationally strong: it dominates its market, the pricing model is powerful and earnings are still growing.
There are a few reasons why investors are selling their REA Group shares. The company recently reported a decline in new national listings and in May the ACCC launched a probe into REA's pricing practices.
Competition for REA could also be fiercer after competitor Domain was acquired by CoStar Group Inc (NASDAQ: CSGP) in August.
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) recently cut its 12-month target to $220, because of uncertainty around AI, increased competition and the ACCC regulatory investigation.
Macquarie's target is on the low side, as the average price target is $246, suggesting an upside of 23%.
Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC)
The slide in Nine Entertainment's share price was mostly technical. The fall was tied to the special dividend paid out to shareholders from the sale of Nine's 60% stake in Domain in May this year. On 11 September, the ex-dividend date, the share price took a sharp tumble with 34% to reflect that pay-out.
Beyond the special dividend, the media company is also battling a weaker business outlook. Analysts are particularly concerned about Nine's reliance on its television business which is vulnerable for a softer advertising market. That has been reason for some brokers to cut revenue estimates for 2026 from $2.7 billion to $2.3 billion.
In the past 6 months Nine Entertainment shares have lost 26% in value. At the time of writing, the media stock trades at $1.12 per share, almost 70% lower than at the end of August.
The main challenge for Nine Entertainment will be to stabilise earnings with its core television and radio assets and deliver growth through digital platforms like Stan.
In recent weeks, most analysts have downgraded their price target to an average of $1.44, which suggest a 28% upside at the current share price. The majority of analysts still rate the media stock a hold or buy, mainly due to the weaker share price.
