Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) has been riding a strong wave of investor interest as the gold price soars. As a result, the share price exploded in 2025 with 126% to $134.86 at the time of writing.
Can the stock of world's largest gold producer reach even greater heights or has Newmont already priced in too much optimism?
Modern Gold Mine in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia. Large truck transports gold ore from the Super Pit, Open cast mine.
Gold's appeal in uncertain times
The appeal of gold as a safe haven remains strong amid geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic risks. Higher gold prices naturally boost Newmont's revenue, and in recent quarters the company has benefitted handsomely from that tailwind.
There is a strong argument that Newmont's share price could keep climbing, particularly if the gold rally continues. The good news for gold investors is that several market experts predict that new record heights are in sight due to strong central bank purchasing and strengthening market investment.
America's biggest bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) and French bank Societe Generale SA say the gold price could exceed US$5,000 per ounce next year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) is tipping US$4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. The current gold price is US$4,103 per ounce, so analysts believe there's room to grow.
Strong results and deep reserves
Newmont is in a good position to continue to outpace the gold market, as it has done in the past 12 months. It has first-class gold reserves in all parts of the world, healthy margins and a low-debt capital structure.
The company's results in the third quarter (Q3 2025) were strong. Over the three months, Newmont produced 1.4 million gold ounces and net income was up 18.8% to US$1.9 billion compared to Q2 2025.
Off the pace
The gold giant faces clear pressure from volatile gold process, operational setbacks and rising operating costs, that can quickly erode margins and affect the share price.
In the past two trading days, Newmont shares have dropped off the pace with losing 6% of its value. A slight hick-up in the gold price and investors cashing in on their Newmont investment could be the main reasons for the decline.
Most analysts remain upbeat on the ASX stock, with the majority recommending a hold or buy and forecasting 10-18% upside.
However, Baker Young thinks it's time to take profits on Newmont shares.
The broker notes:
As much as the underlying drivers of record gold prices remain intact, including inflation, low interest rates and high levels of geopolitical tension, we view the recent spike as unsustainable in the longer term. We would be locking in part profits on gold producer Newmont following a recent mixed quarterly update. It delivered marginally better than predicted production, but also warned of higher than anticipated capital expenditure requirements that we expect will reduce free cash flow during fiscal year 2026.
