ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares have been in the spotlight this week.
The banking giant's shares have been pushing higher thanks to the release of a solid full year result.
But is that result strong enough to justify investing in the big four bank at current levels. Let's see what analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) are saying.
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What is Macquarie saying?
Macquarie notes that the result was a bit of a mixed bag. On the surface, it was weaker than expected. But under the hood, there were some positives that support its investment thesis. It explains:
At the headline level, ANZ's 2H25 result was slightly weaker than expected, dragged by weaker revenue. However, the details for what matters on the investment thesis (the cost out and turnaround) were better.
2H25 expenses were 1% below expected, guidance for FY26 expenses were better, and ~2k of the planned 4.5k headcount reduction has already been completed. While in the short term the market remains focused on cost out, and the certainty of cost guidance gives us more confidence in that regard, to deliver on its medium-term return targets we believe ANZ will need to stabilise and eventually improve market share and revenue growth – a rare feat to outperform peers on both costs and revenue.
The broker also highlights that ANZ's cost guidance for the year ahead is below both consensus and its own estimates. Though, Macquarie suspects some of this will be lost to restructuring charges. It adds:
ANZ's cost guidance suggests FY26 expenses of ~$11.5bn, below Visible Alpha (VA) consensus' and our forecasts. We largely incorporate this guidance but continue to expect an additional $200m of restructuring charges in FY26 as ANZ seeks to deliver future cost savings.
Should you invest?
While ANZ remains the broker's preferred pick in the banking sector, it still only has a neutral rating on its shares with an improved price target of $35.00. This compares unfavourably to its current share price of $38.03.
Commenting on its recommendation, Macquarie concludes:
While we are sceptical of ANZ's ability to achieve its medium-term targets and see risks to execution, it appears to be on the right pathway, delivering on near-term goals. In addition, ANZ shares trade on a 10-17% discount to NAB and WBC, and it remains our preferred bank. Neutral.
Valuation: We increase our TP to $35.00 (from $34.00), reflective of the better EPS. This is based broadly on our Gordon Growth and relative valuation approaches.
