The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price has taken a bit of a dive this month following the investment bank's FY26 first-half result. It's down 5% following its result and it's down 10% from 22 October 2025, as the chart below shows.
What a business reports plays a key role in how the share price performs. Let's remind ourselves what owners of Macquarie shares saw recently.
Macquarie reported that its HY26 net profit grew by 3% year-over-year to $1.65 billion.
Looking at the individual segments, let's start with Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) – its net profit contribution rose 43% to $1.17 billion, primarily driven by higher performance fees.
The banking and financial services (BFS) segment achieved a net profit contribution of $793 million, up 22% year-over-year. The home loan portfolio and deposits both grew, benefiting the company's bottom line.
The commodities and global markets (CGM) segment saw net profit decline by 15% to $1.11 billion. Higher expenses impacted profit, with increased investments in the CGM platform, remediation-related spending and significant transaction-related costs.
Macquarie Capital (the investment banking segment) saw its net profit rise 92% to $711 million. The result reflected higher fee income from mergers and acquisitions and brokerage, as well as higher net income on the private credit portfolio.
That's the past, let's take a look at what could happen next.
Image source: Getty Images
How could a $5,000 investment in Macquarie shares perform?
The broker UBS currently has a price target of $225 on the business, suggesting a possible rise of around 9% from where it is today.
Therefore, based on that price target, a $5,000 investment could deliver capital growth of $460 over the next year, becoming $5,460. On top of that, UBS is suggesting the investment bank could deliver a dividend yield of 3.3% over FY26.
Why does UBS think the Macquarie share price could rise?
The broker said Macquarie is a "quality compounder but finds itself in a soft patch". UBS said there are cyclical factors at play driving its underperformance, but if this underperformance continues then a "strategic reshuffle around group structure and assets might be warranted", especially if the Macquarie share price falls further.
UBS is still predicting that the Macquarie net profit could rise to $4.08 billion in FY26 and then the net profit could grow in each of the subsequent financial years.
It could make net profit of $4.4 billion in FY27, $4.75 billion in FY28, $5.2 billion in FY29 and $5.5 billion in FY30.
The company may deliver solid net profit growth in the coming years, though UBS only has a neutral rating on Macquarie shares.
