Why did Morgans just lower its target price on this ASX 200 stock?

Is this financials share a buy, hold or sell?

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Key points

  • Morgans downgraded its target price for Macquarie Group to $215. 
  • Macquarie's stock price is down 10% over the last year, although full-year guidance remains unchanged. 
  • Despite the price target reduction, Morgans maintains a hold recommendation with a 3.78% upside, while some analysts, like those at Fairmont Equities, anticipate a potential rally once selling pressure subsides.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is one of the largest ASX 200 companies by market capitalisation

In fact, it is the fifth largest ASX listed financial services stock after the big four banks. 

However unlike the big four banks, Macquarie is primarily involved in investment and commercial banking and asset management, with Macquarie now in the top 50 global asset managers.

Its stock price is down almost 10% over the last 12 months. 

The team out of Morgans released analysis on the ASX 200 stock yesterday, and lowered its target price. 

Let's see what was behind the adjustment. 

1H 26 results softer than expected 

Last week, Macquarie released its 1H 26 results

The company reported a net profit of $1.655 million, up 3% on 1H25 and down 21% on 2H25. 

Morgans highlighted that the company also reported an NPAT (A$1.65bn). This was +3% on the pcp, but -9% below company-compiled consensus ($1.81bn).

Morgans also acknowledged there were some explainable items driving this miss, including increased investment spend in CGM, the impact of green asset impairments, and non-repeated prior year gains also came into play. 

However, purely on face value, Morgans said it was another headline result miss for Macquarie Group, albeit full year guidance commentary appears relatively unchanged. 

The team at Morgans has made mild downgrades to its Macquarie's FY26 earnings protections of -2%, with future year earnings slightly lifted (+2% to 4%) on a broad review of earnings assumptions. 

Macquarie price target reduced 

Based on the analysis out of Morgans, the broker reduced its price target to $215 (previously $223). 

It maintains a hold recommendation believing the stock is currently trading close to fair value. 

Based on the price target for this ASX 200 stock, there is approximately 3.78% upside. 

Interestingly, there seems to be a wide range of opinions on Macquarie shares. 

The Motley Fool's James Mickleboro reported earlier today that the team at Fairmont Equities thinks that this investment bank could be an ASX 200 share to buy.

Its analysts expect Macquarie's shares to rally higher once selling pressure eases

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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