Buy, hold, sell: Amcor, NAB, and Woodside shares

Are these blue chips buys? Let's find out.

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Key points

  • Amcor has been upgraded to a buy rating by Morgans due to its robust quarterly performance and promising outlook, buoyed by anticipated synergies from a recent acquisition and an attractive valuation.
  • Morgans suggests selling National Australia Bank stock, as its recent earnings underperformed market expectations, and its premium valuation appears unjustified in light of growth constraints and regulatory capital pressures.
  • Woodside Energy Group receives a reaffirmed buy rating, thanks to its solid project execution and strategic financial management, which promises significant growth and dividend potential.

There are plenty of ASX 200 shares to choose from the Australian share market.

But which ones could be buys right now? Let's take a look at what Morgans is saying about three popular picks. Here's what you need to know:

Amcor (ASX: AMC)

This packaging giant released its quarterly update last week and delivered a result in line with expectations despite a subdued volume environment.

In light of this solid performance, its cheap valuation, and attractive dividend yield, Morgans has upgraded the ASX 200 share to a buy rating with a $15.20 price target. It said:

AMC's 1Q26 result was in line with management's guidance despite a generally subdued volume environment. Importantly, management has reaffirmed FY26 underlying EPS guidance of US80-83cps (MorgansF US81.3cps), representing 12-17% growth at constant FX. This includes expected synergies from the Berry acquisition of "at least US$260m", reflecting slightly increased confidence compared to the previous guidance of "approximately US$260m".

Our target price is maintained at $15.20 and with a 12-month forecast TSR of 25%, we upgrade our rating to BUY (from ACCUMULATE). Following AMC's solid 1Q26 result, management's increased confidence in delivering FY26 synergy targets, and the reaffirmation of FY26 guidance, we believe the outlook remains positive. Trading on 10.4x FY26F PE with a 6.1% yield, we view the valuation as attractive. Potential positive catalysts include meeting or exceeding expectations in upcoming quarterly results and the successful completion of additional asset sales.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)

Morgans wasn't overly impressed with the big four bank's full year results. It notes that NAB's earnings in the second half fell short of expectations.

In light of this and its soft earnings outlook, the broker doesn't just its premium valuation. As a result, it has put a sell rating and $31.46 price target on NAB's shares. It explains:

2H25 earnings (-2% vs 1H25) missed market expectations of a flat result. While NAB has loan growth and revenue momentum heading into 1H26, it also has momentum in costs and showed signs of asset quality deterioration and tightness in regulatory capital. This is likely to see limited (if any) DPS growth and constrain capital management over coming years. We make +/-1% changes to FY26-28 forecast earnings, targeting mid-single digit earning growth over the forecast period. NAB is trading at historical extremes of key valuation metrics. The 2H25 result and earnings outlook doesn't justify such pricing. SELL retained at current prices. Target price $31.46 (+23 cps).

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

This energy producer has been running the rule over energy giant Woodside and likes what it sees.

So much so, it has reaffirmed its buy rating and $30.50 price target on Woodside's shares. It commented:

Execution remains best-in-class: Scarborough, Sangomar and Trion all tracking on time and budget. Louisiana progressing under de-risked funding structure. Growth to 2032 with net operating cash flow guided to ~US$9bn (+6% CAGR) with a pathway to ~50% higher dividends. Partner sell downs (Stonepeak, Williams) back-load capex and cut near-term funding by >US$5 billion. Market remains cautious on midstream Louisiana model, but it solves previous major gap in fundamentals as Pluto/NWS output declines in future years. We maintain our BUY rating and unchanged A$30.50 target price.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Amcor Plc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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