If you're trying to predict what happens next for Australian house prices, it pays to watch two companies closely: REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA) and PEXA Group Ltd (ASX: PXA).
Together, they sit at the coalface of the housing market with one (REA Group) measuring buyer demand and listing activity, whilst the other tracks settlement and refinancing volumes.
Their latest quarterly updates give us clues and insights into the health of Australian property. So what are they saying?
Drop in listings but solid refinancing activity
National residential buy listings on REA Group's platform were down 8% (compared to the prior corresponding period), with listings in Sydney down 6% and in Melbourne down 4%.
According to REA's management, the decrease is because of particularly strong buyer listing volumes last year, which makes the comparables tough to follow up on this year. Despite that, they believe that buyer demand remains strong nationally.
PEXA, on the other hand, reported a 6% rise in property transaction volumes and a 16% surge in refinancing activity as property owners made the most of the RBA's cash rate cuts in prior months.
So what do we make of these results?
Both REA and PEXA are pointing to a market that's steady, but there are risks of a potential softening.
REA expects full-year listings to be broadly in line with last year's healthy levels, while PEXA reaffirmed guidance and highlighted only "slight softening" in early Q2.
Both companies' data also reflects shifting regional trends: Sydney and Melbourne are seeing improving stock levels, while supply constraints linger elsewhere.
Of course, with the RBA sharply halting cash rate cuts and some economists predicting that the current cash rate cut cycle may be over, that does present risks of a potential softening in the property market.
Foolish bottom line
REA and PEXA provide investors with a pulse check on the state of Australian housing. Their Q1 numbers show a market that's absorbing rate changes and holding firm rather than rolling over.
Listings may be down, but buyer intent and settlement activity remain strong. For now, that suggests the next phase for Australian property is not a downturn, but if credit conditions tighten, interest rates rise, or consumer confidence dips, that picture could change quickly.
