The Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF) share price has struggled to regain momentum in recent weeks, but one major broker sees scope for a rebound ahead.
Macquarie analysts have reiterated an outperform rating on the insurance broking group, maintaining their 12-month price target of $7, which represents an estimated 37% total shareholder return from the current price of around $5.27.
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Broker confidence remains intact
In a new research note released on 6 November, Macquarie said it expects Steadfast to continue delivering solid earnings despite near-term weakness in several product lines.
According to the report, pricing growth was subdued in October 2025, particularly across Workers Compensation, Home, and Strata insurance, with only Personal Motor showing strength.
Even so, Macquarie estimates Steadfast's product mix achieved an average +2.2% premium increase in the September quarter, aligning closely with company guidance.
The analysts emphasised that Steadfast's shares are now trading at an 8.6% discount to international peers, well below the stock's historical premium, leaving valuation support for upside if growth normalises.
What Steadfast does
Steadfast is Australasia's largest general insurance broker network and underwriting agency group, with a growing footprint across Asia, Europe, and the United States.
Its network includes more than 450 brokerages, which gain access to superior market pricing, exclusive insurance products, and back-office support through Steadfast's scale. The group's brokers place coverage across more than 160 tailored products, helping businesses and individuals manage risk more effectively.
Steadfast also operates the region's largest underwriting agency group, designing and distributing specialist insurance solutions to both network and non-network brokers. Supporting these operations are a suite of complementary businesses — including technology, premium funding, reinsurance, legal, and risk services — that strengthen the group's offering and enhance broker efficiency.
Together, these segments form a scalable platform that has delivered consistent revenue and profit growth since Steadfast listed on the ASX in 2013.
Outlook and valuation
The investment bank kept its valuation unchanged, underpinned by forecasts for revenue growth of 12.4% in FY26 and operating earnings (EBITDA) growth of 15.9%.
Earnings per share are projected to rise 6.6% next year, with a fully franked dividend yield of about 4%.
Macquarie describes the company's ongoing expansion into the United States as a key long-term opportunity, noting that the ability to "maximise returns on a US roll-out is key to Steadfast's long-term value."
The broker concludes, "At current valuations, we retain our Outperform recommendation."
Context behind recent share pressure
Steadfast shares have fallen roughly 20% over the past fortnight amid company-specific headlines.
In late October, the company announced that Managing Director Robert Kelly had stepped aside on a temporary basis while an independent investigation into a workplace complaint proceeds.
He remains on full pay, and Steadfast's board has appointed Tim Mathieson as acting CEO until the process concludes.
At the same time, broader market weakness and sector downgrades have weighed on sentiment toward insurance brokers.
Foolish bottom line
While short-term uncertainty may linger, Macquarie's view is that the company's earnings trajectory and network scale remain compelling.
If its forecasts prove accurate, Steadfast shares could have meaningful upside over the year ahead.
