IDP Education (ASX: IEL) shares have plunged into the red in lunchtime trading on Wednesday. At the time of writing the share price is down 7.51% and changing hands at $5.05 a piece.
It's been a difficult 6 months for the global English language education service. It shed 51.5% of its share price in June following a disappointing market update. For the year, the beaten-down shares are now 63.96% lower.
The stock frequently appears on the list of the most shorted shares listed on the ASX as well. Most recently, it was listed as the index's 6th most shorted stock, with 11.8% of its shares held short.
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What's next for IDP Education shares?
In a recent note to investors, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) analysts have confirmed their neutral rating on IDP Education shares. The broker also confirmed its 12-month target price of $6.00.
At the time of writing, that represents a potential 18.8% upside for investors over the next 12 months.
"We lift FY26E EPS by +1.7% and marginally temper FY27-28E by -0.2%, reflecting amendments to student placement volumes….Our 12-month forward TP of $6.00 remains unchanged and is based on 27x 12m fwd P/E, or a 25% premium to the ASX 300 Industrials," the broker said in the note.
"Neutral. We view the long-term thesis to be intact, as we expect foreign student demand will return to key Western markets. However, we see risks to near-term EPS due to weak market volumes."
What else did Macquarie have to say?
The update follows the latest Foreign Student Report Card data for October 2025. The broker noted that university-granted visas (with no prior visa) in Australia were down 14%. It noted that this represents an improvement from the 26% decline in August, but is worse than the 10% decline in July.
"Volume weakness was pronounced in IEL's key source markets, India (-38%) and China (-27%). Visas granted from Aug-25 through to Jan-26 align with revenue recognised in 1H26E, with volumes over Aug/Sep-25 suggesting potential market volume declines of ~20-35% (based on total, India and China university)," it said in the note.
Canada remains the weakest region in terms of key visa volumes. Although Canada did show month-on-month improvement. Total volumes fell 22% in August (versus -34% in July). Meanwhile, university volumes fell 30% (versus 37% in July), India total volumes were down 4% (versus -35% in July) and China total volumes dropped 66% (versus -29% in July).
"Visas granted from Feb-25 through to Aug-25 align with revenue recognised in 1H26E, suggesting potential market volume declines of ~35-60% (based on university, India or China)," Macquarie said.
In the UK, university visa volumes remained robust. They were up 27% in the June quarter, compared to 28% growth in the March quarter.
"India showed strength at +44% (vs +31%), while China deteriorated to -36% (vs -9%). While university volume growth for 12mths to Jun-25 was -4% (-11% India, -7% China), IEL reported -20% FY25 UK student placement volume declines."
