The Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) share price is 1.05% lower at the time of writing on Tuesday morning, changing hands at $12.24 per share.
Over the year, the share price has moved higher. Origin shares have increased by 16.37% over the past six months and are now trading 23.86% higher than they were 12 months ago.
The energy giant's recent strong performance comes on the back of recent M&A speculation. Reports suggest that an investment bank has been hired to oversee a potential sale of Kraken Technologies, a UK business owned by Octopus Energy, in which Origin Energy holds a significant stake.
Origin Energy has said it supports the separation of Kraken and Octopus, and believes it will add value to the Australian company's share price.
And now analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have updated their price target on the shares.
Here's what the broker has to say.
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What's Macquarie's price target on Origin Energy shares?
In a recent note to investors, the broker said it maintains its neutral rating on Origin Energy shares and has raised its price target to $11.80. Its previous price target was $11.34.
The new $11.80 forecast represents a potential 3.6% downside for investors over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.
"Valuation: Updating for currency (£0.50, was £0.515) lifts Octopus. EM multiple drops reflecting lease impact, though net value unchanged. TP up 4% to $11.80, from $11.34," the broker told investors.
"Neutral. APLNG oil price headwind is material. EM is priced at ~15x PE, well above AGL (9-10x), and OE is already factoring in a £12-14bn valuation. Upside from Kraken winning the next 25m customers and gas reform. The latter provides APLNG a pathway to accelerate gas production."
"Earnings changes: EPS: FY26E -5.5%, FY27E -4.5%, FY28E -1.2%. 90% of the changes are non-cash, with cash flow unchanged. With Eraring life likely to be extended to FY29E, we expect deprecation guidance to be lowered," Macquarie said.
What else did Macquarie have to say about the stock?
The broker notes that Origin Energy's 1Q FY26 data was broadly in line with expectations. Although it added that the company's Asia Pacific LNG (APLNG) business was slightly weaker.
APLNG EBITDA outcomes are $24 million lower with slightly lower export volumes compared to domestic volumes and a lower average export price. Export pricing was down 13% for the quarter, while domestic pricing was down 6%.
Meanwhile, a cooler winter has demand back to 1Q FY23 levels. Overall, volatility in the company's energy markets was lower through the quarter. Therefore, Macquarie said it expects unhedged/trading profitability to be lower in 1Q FY26 versus 1Q FY25.
Elsewhere, Macquarie said the energy giant has updated its depreciation guidance to +$100 million on FY25. Macquarie estimates this will be more like +$50 million.
"[This is] mainly due to Eraring (+$50m) but also +$10m associated with battery account policy. The latter will increase EBITDA, depreciation, and interest expense, while net debt/EBITDA rises to ~2.6x in FY27 instead of 2.2x, reducing the balance sheet headroom, but no change to cash flow," the broker said.
