CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) has endured a forgettable year in 2025 as a series of setbacks eroded investor confidence.
In particular, the company faced an underperformance in its Behring plasma therapies business in FY25.
It has also grappled with ongoing uncertainty surrounding its Seqirus vaccines division and announced plans for a major corporate restructuring.
And last week's downgrade in earnings and revenue guidance caused another dent in its share price.
Overall, CSL shares have now tumbled by 38% since the start of January to $175.39 per share at Monday's close.
In contrast, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) has risen by 8.5% during the same period.
Following the most recent downgrade, analysts at Australian investment house Ord Minnett have shared their views on CSL shares.
But before diving into the broker's analysis, let's first recap the key details of the downgrade.
CSL's latest downgrade
Last week, CSL revised its FY26 revenue growth guidance to between 2% and 3%, down from its previous forecast of between 4% and 5%.
It also downgraded its outlook for profit growth in FY26 to between 4% and 7%, down from between 7% and 10% previously.
Management attributed these cuts to weaker expected albumin demand in the company's core Behring division, driven by cost-saving measures in China.
It also anticipates a decline in US vaccination rates to weigh on Seqirus revenue.
Furthermore, the vaccine uncertainty also prompted CSL to defer the planned spin-off of Seqirus until market conditions stabilise.
Looking further ahead, the company reduced its net profit growth outlook for FY27 and FY28 from double-digit gains to high single digits.
So, what does Ord Minnett now think of CSL shares after these downgrades?
Let's take a closer look.
Ord Minnett's take on CSL shares
Firstly, Ord Minnett trimmed its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for CSL by 2.1% in FY26, 2.0% in FY27, and 1.9% in FY28.
The broker also highlighted the importance of CSL's upcoming US Capital Markets event for building a deeper understanding of the group's strategic direction.
It stated:
In addition to broader questions over group strategy and how Behring can widen its margins, the new product pipeline, and opportunities for geographic expansion and market share growth, we will also be seeking more detail on the strategy behind the Seqirus separation and looking for comfort over earnings visibility given this latest downgrade comes just two months post the FY25 results.
Despite recent challenges, Ord Minnett appears to see value in CSL shares assuming no further negative developments emerge to unsettle the share price.
Ord Minnett's final verdict
Ord Minnett retained its hold recommendation for CSL shares but lowered its target price to $235 per share, down from $258 previously.
This revision reflects the broker's concerns around revenue growth, the timing of margin recovery in the Behring division, uncertainty surrounding the Seqirus spin-off, and potential US trade tariffs.
Ord Minnett's new target for CSL shares implies 34% upside potential from Monday's closing price of $175.39 per share.
