When it comes to supermarket retailers, Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL), which reported strong first-quarter sales earlier this week, appears to have the edge over Woolworths at the moment.
The company reported group sales of $10.96 billion for the first quarter, a 3.9% increase from the same period last year. Meanwhile, supermarket sales rose 4.8% to $9.97 billion.
Chief Executive Leah Weckert said the company was pleased with its performance, "with supermarket sales growth reflecting the focus we have had on value, quality and the customer experience''.
Where to for Coles shares?
So Coles appears to be a good choice for shoppers, but the question is, do its shares still represent value for investors?
Well, according to the teams at both Macquarie and Jarden, the answer is yes.
Macquarie ran the ruler over the numbers at Coles, and they like what they see, with an outperform rating on the shares.
The Macquarie analysts pointed out that supermarket sales at Coles were growing at a rate about 2-3 times faster than Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)'s sales, "indicative of ongoing market share gains''.
They also liked what they saw in terms of Coles' investments in its supply chain behind the scenes.
As they said:
On the customer fulfilment centres (CFC), the group has expanded catchment areas and introduced same-day delivery in Melbourne, with customer satisfaction metrics holding despite the lift in load. Management is continuing to assess the impact of the transition in Melbourne; however, we expect this will be rolled out to the Sydney CFC in due course.
Value at the current price
The Macquarie analysts are expecting earnings at Coles to grow at a compound annual rate of about 10% in earnings per share terms, and have a price target of $26.10 on the shares, compared with $22.71 at the close of trade on Thursday.
Factoring in dividends, they are projecting a total shareholder return of 18.5% over the next 12 months.
The team at Jarden are less bullish, but still forecasts modest upside in the share price to $22.40, and including dividends, expects a total return of 4.8% over the next year.
The Jarden analysts say Coles is "running its own race", and the business is yielding rising returns from its investments in back-end infrastructure.
They added:
However, near term, we see the risk of rising competition, high expectations and competitor looking to lean more into price creating some risk, with most scenarios for the next 12 months – in our view – seeing Woolworths outperforming (share price, not operationally) versus Coles. With the above in mind, we retain our neutral rating on Coles with a preference for Woolworths.
