If you are on the hunt for some big returns, then it could be worth considering the ASX 200 share in this article.
That's because analysts at Bell Potter are recommending it to clients and are tipping very big returns over the next 12 months.
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Which ASX 200 share?
The share we are going to look at today is diversified food company Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA). It owns brands such as Vegemite, Bega, Yoplait, Farmers Union, Pura, and Dare.
Bell Potter was pleased with the company's annual general meeting update. It highlights that the ASX 200 share has reaffirmed its guidance for FY 2026 and is on target to outperform its FY 2028 guidance. It said:
BGA's AGM retained FY26e earnings guidance while pointing to a step-change in FY27e and being on track to exceed BGA's $250m FY28e EBITDA target.
Key points: AGM comments: Of interest we noted: (1) Retention of FY26e EBITDA guidance of $215-220m, despite the recent weaker pricing trends in SMP and lower industry milk production; (2) Comments that BGA has increased contracted FY26e milk supply compared to a YTD -2% YOY move in national milk supply (and a YTD -3% YOY contraction in the SE milk pool); (3) Anticipation of a step-change in FY27e EBITDA as the benefits of the closure of the Strathmerton and PCA (expected to deliver $35-40m in operational savings) flow through; and (4) BGA is confident of exceeding its $250m FY28e EBITDA target.
Big potential returns
In response to the update, the broker has reaffirmed its buy rating and $7.00 price target on the ASX 200 share.
Based on its current share price of $5.41, this implies potential upside of almost 30% for investors over the next 12 months.
In addition, the broker is forecasting fully franked dividends of 12 cents per share in FY 2026. This equates to a dividend yield of 2.2%, which lifts the total potential return comfortably beyond 30%.
Overall, Bell Potter thinks this ASX 200 share is good value given its very positive growth outlook. In fact, it sees potential for its shares to rise beyond its price target if everything goes to plan. It explains:
Our Buy rating is unchanged. Following recent restructuring announcements with regard to the closure of Strathmerton and winding down of the PCA operations, there appears a clear pathway towards a $250-270m EBITDA target.
If successful in generating this return and having consideration for the cash costs to achieve this target (c$85-100m), it would imply a share price of $8.00-9.00ps (at BGA's historical ~12x EBITDA multiple). In effect, BGA now has a clearly articulated strategy to generating >20%pa EPS growth to FY28e. Trading on a FY25-28e PEG ratio of ~1x, BGA is one of the more compelling growth exposures in the sector.
