Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) is an ASX 200 mining stock that has risen more than 60% year to date.
This is in line with the strong returns of many ASX mining shares that have enjoyed a bull run in 2025.
Sandfire Resources is a global mineral exploration and development company, largely focused on copper.
The team at Macquarie has released a new report on this mining stock, suggesting the boom might be over.
Here's what the broker had to say today.
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The positive for this mining stock
Macquarie said Sandfire Resources previously flagged that 1QFY26 would be the weakest of FY26, with 48% of production in the 1HFY26 (75.4kt CuEq), and 45% of 1HFY26 in the 1QFY26 (33.9kt CuEq). Positively, Sandfire Resources was able to beat its own target by 5%, with CuEq production of 35.5kt.
Stronger realised copper prices of US$9,772/t (2% higher than VA of US$9,590/t) and 5 shipments from Motheo (typically ~4/5 shipments) drove a revenue beat of 9% at US$328m, which flowed through to an EBITDA beat.
Macquarie noted that Sandfire Resources expects to release an updated Reserve and Resource estimate and PFS (Pre-Feasibility Study) for the Black Butte copper project around mid-to-late December 2025.
After this update, the company will reassess whether Black Butte remains a strategic fit within its portfolio.
Concerns
Macquarie expressed concerns about recent regulatory changes in Botswana that could negatively affect the outlook for this ASX 200 stock.
As of 1 October, Botswana's new Mines and Minerals Act allows the government to acquire up to a 24% working interest in any new mining licence, an increase from the previous 15%.
This change could dilute Sandfire's ownership and reduce the economic attractiveness of future projects in the country.
In addition, the new legislation introduces a 10,000 km² cap on the total area that any corporate group can hold under prospecting licences.
Since Sandfire currently holds around 13,052 km², the company may be required to relinquish some of its lower-priority exploration tenements over the medium term.
Overall, Macquarie views these regulatory developments as potentially limiting Sandfire's operational flexibility and long-term growth options in Botswana.
Price target
Macquarie has maintained its neutral rating on this ASX 200 mining stock.
It also increased its target price by 3% to $15.50 on short-term EPS increases.
However, the mining stock is trading today at approximately $15.32.
This indicates modest upside of just 1.18%.
