20% upside ahead: Perseus Mining shares tipped to surpass all-time high

The gold miner released its quarterly update yesterday.

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Key points

  • Perseus Mining shares have dropped 11.22% from their mid-October peak, despite a 61.62% increase over the year, as recent production results show a 17.6% decline from the previous quarter.
  • Macquarie upgrades its rating to outperform with a $5.50 target price, indicating a 20% upside potential, noting the miner's performance aligns with guidance despite softer cash flows.
  • Perseus retains FY26 guidance with expected improvements at Edikan and Sissingué driving a 2H production bias, and stabilised schedules at CMA underground promising development by 3QFY26.

The Perseus Mining Limited (ASX: PRU) share price slumped in early-afternoon trade on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the shares are 3.07% lower and changing hands at $4.585 a piece.

The gold miner's share price peaked at an all-time high of $5.17 per share in mid-October, but has since fallen 11.22% to today's date. Although, over the year the shares are still an impressive 61.62% higher.

As a gold miner engaged in exploration, development, and mining of the metal in Africa, Perseus Mining has closely followed the recent gold price booms and crashes.

Perseus Mining also released its quarterly production report yesterday. The miner announced that its gold production of 99,953 ounces was down 17.6% from the prior quarter.

Gold sales from the miner's three operations totalled 101,589 ounces, from 29,653 ounces from the previous quarter thanks to lower production. Although this was in line with the miner's FY26 production guidance. 

Over the quarter, Perseus achieved an average realised gold price of US$3,075 per ounce, which was US$98 per ounce more than in the June quarter.

Going forward, Perseus Mining maintains its FY26 production and an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance of 400,000 to 440,000 ounces at AISC of US$1,460 to US$1,620 per ounce.

Following the gold miner's latest announcement, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) wrote a note to investors with an update of their stance on the stock.

Macquarie tips 20% upside for Perseus Mining shares

The broker has upgraded its rating on Perseus Mining shares to outperform, up from neutral in mid-October. But Macquarie has maintained its $5.50 per share 12-month target price on the shares.

At the time of writing, this represents a potential 20% upside for investors over the next 12 months. 

"Upgrade to Outperform following share price weakness. PRU's 1QFY26 operational result was decent, with production in line and AISC a modest beat. However, cash flow was softer than expected noting a US$19m bullion build and a US$43m WC/FX drag. Importantly, PRU has retained FY26 guidance," Macquarie said in its note.

What else was said?

The broker noted that the miner's gold production was in line with Macquarie estimates and market expectations while AISC of US$1,463/oz was a 7% and 5% beat to Macquarie estimates and market expectations, respectively.

"The 1QFY26 AISC beat sees our EPS lift 1% in FY26. Updating PRU's hedge book sees FY27/28 EPS trimmed 6/2% with no change thereafter….We make no change to our A$5.50/sh target price," Macquarie said.

The broker also noted that Perseus Mining made no change to FY26 guidance of 400 to 440koz at an AISC of US$1,460 to US$1,620/oz with YTD production at 24% of that midpoint. 

"Management also reiterated on the conference call that production is likely to be slightly 2HFY26 weighted, largely driven by improving grades at both Edikan and Sissingué which will outstrip a 1H production weighting at Yaouré," the broker said.

"Importantly, the previously announced schedule slippages at the CMA underground (approvals delay) appears to have stabilised with first development still expected in 3QFY26 with commercial production expected in 3QFY27."

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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