If you are on the lookout for a combination of big returns and exposure to the sky-high gold price, then it could be worth considering Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares.
That's because the team at Bell Potter believes that this ASX 200 gold stock could deliver big returns for investors over the next 12 months.
What is the broker saying about this ASX 200 gold stock?
Bell Potter wasn't overly impressed with Northern Star's performance during the first quarter of FY 2026. It notes that its production and sales were softer than expected and its costs were higher than its forecast but lower than consensus estimates. It said:
1QFY26 highlights: NST produced 383koz Au (BPe 407koz, VA Cons 392koz -12% QoQ) and sold 381koz (BPe 421koz, VA cons 393koz). AISC of A$2,522/oz (BPe A$2,406/oz, VA Cons $2,715/oz) +15% QoQ. Average gold price was A$4,452/oz (BPe A$4,427/oz, VA cons A$4,854/oz). Revenue was A$1,697m (BPe $1,865m, VA Cons $1,907m).
The result missed the mark of consensus estimates for production and sales, however lower AISC were a welcomed surprise. The stock price managed to end the day in the black as gold prices stabilised overnight (US $4,107/oz). Production in 2QFY26 will be impacted by two incidents at Jundee and South Kalgoorlie, which have been rectified but will result in up to ~20koz of lost production. It is NST's expectations that these volumes will be covered over 2HFY26 as throughput increases.
And while there is some uncertainty in respect to its production outlook, the broker believes it will achieve the middle of its guidance range at 1,748 ounces. It adds:
We forecast FY26 production of 1,748oz Au at the group level (VA cons 1,745oz Au, group guidance 1,700-1,850koz). This result primarily hinges on a grade lift at KCGM in 2HFY26 (average over FY26 1.59g/t, FY25 1.33g/t) which is expected to come from increased productivity and higher grades in the open pit (OP) eg Golden Pike North and underground. From NST 4QFY25 report – "Milled grades are expected to stabilise in September quarter and then lift for the remainder of the year."
Big potential returns
According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating and $30.00 price target on the ASX 200 gold stock. Based on its current share price of $23.64, this implies potential upside of 27% for investors over the next 12 months.
In addition, Bell Potter is forecasting a 2% dividend yield, which boosts the total potential return to approximately 29%.
