The economics of high-end coffee machines – the specialty of Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG) – are interesting.
Sure, their flagship, The Oracle machine, will set you back more than $3000, for which price you get a touchscreen-enabled device that you can program your own favourite coffee into.
But arguably, compared with buying a couple of barista-made coffees a day, they more than pay for themselves over the medium term, and with more of us working from home, chances are we're more likely to be making our own coffee also.
Survey says coffee a hot topic
The issue of whether or not the average punter is keen to shell out so much money for a coffee machine is one Breville is keenly interested in, as more than half of its sales revenue comes from coffee machine sales.
And a recent report from Citi analyst Sam Teeger, quoted by The Australian on Monday, suggests Breville has plenty to look forward to.
The Citi team, the report says, surveyed about 1900 coffee drinkers across Australia, China, Thailand, the UK, and the US, and found that not only was coffee consumption increasing, but there was a shift to at-home consumption, and more of a willingness to upgrade machines.
The report was quoted as saying:
Further, there are findings which we believe to be positive for Breville more specifically, including a) coffee bean delivery subscription services encouraging coffee machine upgrades/purchases, b) a preference for manual/semi-auto machines, and c) datapoints suggesting that Breville's recent entry into China could be successful.
On the downside, the price of coffee machines was seen as a reason people had not yet invested in a new machine.
Breville shares took off on the release of the report on Monday, leading the gains on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) to be 5.4% higher at $30.52.
Strong profit uplift
Breville in August reported a 14.6% increase in net profit on revenue of $1.69 billion, up 10.9%.
The company said at the time that the outlook for FY26 "resembles recent years'', with macroeconomic headwinds "playing against company-specific tailwinds, including new product launches, fast-growing new geographies and solution plays, all supported by increased investment for long-term growth''.
The company said it was factoring in significant cost input increases in FY26 and FY27 for US-based sales, related to the company adapting to the new tariff regime.
The company declined to give specific guidance at the time, saying it would be in a better position to do so when releasing its first-half results.
Breville was valued at $4.19 billion at the close of trade on Friday.
