The team at Macquarie just released its latest High Frequency Consumer Data report and consumer stock picks.
This included stock picks from both consumer discretionary and staples sectors.
Its High Frequency Consumer Data series provides a sample of consumer spending habits on a weekly basis. The sample is weighted towards Sydney and Melbourne and may not be representative of overall spending in Australia.
Black Friday data
The most recent report released on Monday, included data from the black fortnight period.
Macquarie said the Black Friday promotional period has driven year-over-year sales growth across key retail categories of Online (+18%) and Pharmacy (+13%) and Furniture (+8%) categories, with promo activity driving spend. However, Electronics (-1%) sales declined.
The report said recent commentary from the media and industry participants suggest trading has been strong in the household goods category. However, feedback TV sales have been flagged as softer.
The good, the bad and the ugly
Macquarie noted that pharmacy retailing has continued its strong momentum into October and November 2025, growing at low-double-digit rates and remaining consistent with recent trends, which is supportive for Sigma Healthcare (ASX: SIG).
Furniture retailers such as Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN) and Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK) are also seeing mid-single-digit growth. This is a positive outcome given the softer outlook for RBA policy and the resulting drag on new housing creation.
On-premise alcohol sales have strengthened as well,rising about 3% year-on-year. This was potentially helped by the first Ashes test in late November.
Macquarie said this is a small positive for Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV)
On the less favourable side, off-premise alcohol sales are still soft compared with last year, though the rate of decline has eased somewhat, which remains an important factor for Endeavour Group.
There are also signs of weaker consumer spending on electronics, although Macquarie is waiting for more detailed data before turning more cautious.
Meanwhile, online retail growth has accelerated, but this expansion is dilutive to the domestic retail system and adds pressure to traditional store-based retailers.
Stock picks
Overall, Macquarie remains positive on Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL). It said it expects continued market-share gains and benefits from supply-chain investments to drive earnings.
We remain positive on COL driven by market share gains and scaling supply chain investments driving earnings growth (MRE EBIT +14% y-y in FY26E).
In the discretionary sector, JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) is Macquarie's key pick. This is after its recent share price pull-back.
Among small and mid-caps, Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK) is highlighted as the top household-retail pick. Ultimately, this is thanks to market-share growth in a gradually improving furniture category.
Finally, in apparel, Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI) is favoured, supported by strong sales in Universal Store/Perfect Stranger and rising private-label penetration, which is helping lift gross margins.
