Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares are slipping today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold mining giant closed on Friday trading for $127.15. In early afternoon trade on Monday, shares are changing hands for $123.83 apiece, down 2.6%.
But don't break out your tiny violin for stockholders just yet.
Amid the surging gold price and its own operational successes, Newmont shares remain up a whopping 105.5% in 2025. This now sees the United States-based gold miner commanding a market cap of around AU$140.7 billion (US$91.6 billion).
So, after this stellar run, is the ASX 200 gold miner still a buy?
Here's the latest recommendation from Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG).
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Newmont shares: Buy, hold, or sell?
Newmont shares closed down 4.4% on Friday after the miner released its September quarterly update (Q3 2025).
Among the highlights, Newmont achieved an average realised gold price of US$3,539 per ounce over the three months, an increase of US$219 per ounce from the prior quarter.
But shares look to have come under pressure amid a 4% quarter-on-quarter decline in gold production to 1.4 million ounces. Management said lower gold grades and planned shutdowns at several of its mines drove the slowdown.
Gold production was in line with Macquarie's estimates; however, all-in sustaining costs came in lower than the broker had anticipated.
"AISC of US$1,566/oz for the quarter was 6% lower than MQe," Macquarie said.
Commenting on the ASX 200 gold miner's cost-cutting agenda, Newmont CEO Tom Palmer said on Friday:
We are making significant progress on the cost savings initiatives announced at the beginning of the year, enabling us to meaningfully improve our 2025 guidance for several cost metrics, while maintaining our outlook for production and unit costs in a rising gold price environment.
Newmont shares also delivered an earnings beat, with net profit after tax (NPAT) of US$1.8 billion, 9% above Macquarie's estimate. The broker noted profits were "boosted by $99m of gains on assets held for sale while gold realised price beat by 3% with a $62/oz win on provisional adjustments".
Newmont's underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $3.3 billion beat Macquarie's expectations by 13%.
Connecting the dots and following this year's blistering rally, Macquarie maintained its neutral rating on Newmont shares. The broker said:
NEM's 3Q was a beat on costs and cash flow, with the balance sheet returned to a neutral stance. Indicated CY26 production is slightly lower than expected, opex in-line/flat, while some capex is delayed into CY26.
Despite the neutral rating, Macquarie has a 12-month price target of $153 on Newmont shares. That represents a potential upside of almost 24% from current levels.
