The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price hasn't travelled very far over the last 12 months, as the chart below shows. I think this is a good time to consider whether it's the right time to invest in the investment bank.
Macquarie has significantly underperformed the recent share price performance of the other major ASX bank shares of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), which have all risen more than 10% in the last year.
However, I think there's a good chance of the underperformance reversing. Let's take a look at the potential of the Macquarie share price.
Recent disappointing trading
The bank is expected to release its FY26 first-half result soon in November, but we've already seen the first quarter. It's the company's earnings that drive a share price higher (or lower), so investors should keep in mind recent performance. Let's remind ourselves of its latest trading update.
Broker UBS called the overall result in the FY26 first quarter "a bit softer relative to expectations" with the implied net profit performance down on a year-over-year basis around 10% compared to the first quarter of FY25.
Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) earnings were down because of the timing of investment-related income from asset realisations, partly offset by an increase in performance fees and assets under management (AUM) rising by 1% over the quarter to $945 billion.
Banking and financial services (BFS) – the domestic bank and wealth division – saw a strong performance compared to the previous year, supported by growth in the loan portfolio of approximately 4% to 6% compared to March 2025. There was also a 4% increase in deposits. Competitive pressures/growth efforts led to a reduction in the net interest margin (NIM).
The commodities and global markets (CGM) segment profit was down year-over-year, with lower trading income in the North American gas and power unit.
Macquarie Capital's profit was up year-over-year, thanks to higher income from the private credit portfolio, primarily due to volume growth and increased fee and commission income.
Is this the right time to invest in the Macquarie share price?
Broker UBS is forecasting that Macquarie can grow its net profit each year between FY26 and FY30. Starting with $4.17 billion net profit in FY26, the broker predicts the business could deliver an annual net profit of $5.05 billion by FY30.
Profit growth can help deliver rising share prices, which I'd expect to happen with the Macquarie share price if the investment bank delivers the expected profit growth.
The investment bank is doing well at growing different divisions at different times – its BFS (retail) banking division is performing strongly.
It's currently priced at less than 21x FY26's estimated earnings. It looks more appealing to me than CBA shares because of Macquarie's ability to invest in different areas geographically or with its different segments for the best profitable return.
However, I wouldn't say Macquarie shares are the best value idea within the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) – there are other opportunities that look more compelling.
