It's no secret ASX gold shares have been the talk of the town this year.
Many investors were caught off guard on Wednesday last week as the commodity price fell 6.6%.
It was the biggest one-day fall for the yellow metal since 2013.
Investors who have held gold shares throughout the past year or more couldn't be blamed for considering taking their significant gains and moving on.
Similarly, investors who have been wary of missing the gains may now be holding off.
Among the gold shares that saw a recent decline was Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST). Its share price dropped 5.82% last week.
But broker Bell Potter still sees upside.
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Production and revenue outlook
Like many other gold shares, Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX: NST) has enjoyed a stellar year.
Its share price is up 53% year to date.
In a report released on Friday, Bell Potter said it forecasts FY26 group gold production of 1.748Moz, in line with consensus (1.745Moz) and within NST's guidance (1.7–1.85Moz).
This is driven by higher grades at KCGM in 2H FY26 due to better productivity and richer ore from both open pit and underground sources.
The broker also included a FY 26 revenue forecast of $7.55bn. This is 10% below consensus (A$8.37bn).
This reflects Bell Potter's assumption of a lower realised gold price (A$4,449/oz) and the impact of hedging, which covers about 36% of production at prices around A$3,100–A$3,180/oz.
The broker also noted production in 2QFY26 will be impacted by two incidents at Jundee and South Kalgoorlie, which have been rectified but will result in up to ~20koz of lost production.
It is NST's expectations that these volumes will be covered over 2HFY26 as throughput increases.
Price target upside for these gold shares
After shedding more than 5% last week, NST shares hold significant upside based on Bell Potter's price target.
The broker has a 12 month target of $30.00.
Our Target price is unchanged from $30.00/sh and we maintain our Buy recommendation. Our NPAT increases are driven by adjustments to our gold price outlook, FY26 +7% FY27 +17% FY28 +16%.
From last week's close of $23.70, this indicates an upside of 26.54%.
This reinforces the upside that may still remain for ASX gold shares.
