One of the most popular options for investors in the gold industry is Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST).
This isn't surprising given the quality of its operations and their low costs.
But is it a good option for investors wanting exposure to the booming gold price? Let's see what analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) are saying following the release of the gold miner's quarterly update.
What is the broker saying?
Macquarie wasn't blown away with Northern Star's performance during the first quarter of FY 2026.
While its costs were better than expected, its production fell short of estimates for the three months. In addition, it notes that two events occurred which are going to impacts second quarter sales. It commented:
NST reported 1QFY26 production of 383koz and sales of 381koz, both a 3/4% miss to VA/MQe, but broadly in line with the ~400koz NST flagged for 1Q with its guidance, noting major shuts planned across the business. AISC for the quarter of A $2,522/oz was a 7%/5% beat to VA/MQe and was also broadly in line with prior commentary from NST on 1Q AISC. However, NST flagged that two separate events at Yandal and Kalgoorlie (Jundee crushing circuit structural failure and South Kal wall slip) are expected to affect 2Q sales by 'up to 20koz,' with NST implying catch-up is achievable in 2H.
Despite the above, management has reaffirmed its guidance for FY 2026. And while Macquarie has trimmed its sales estimates, it believes the company can achieve the low end of its guidance range. It is now forecasting sales volumes of 1,736k ounces for the year. Commenting on its guidance, the broker said:
NST retained FY26 guidance at 1,700-1,850koz of sales at an AISC of A$2,300-2,700/oz, noting that 1Q sales equate to 21% of the midpoint of FY26 guidance. Importantly, the KCGM mill expansion remains on track for commissioning in early FY27. NST anticipates KCGM OP productivity to improve throughout the year along with better grades at Jundee, Thunderbox, and Pogo for the remainder of the year.
Big potential returns
According to the release, in response to the update, Macquarie has reaffirmed its outperform rating and $30.00 price target on Northern Star's shares.
Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of 26% for investors over the next 12 months.
It also expects a 2.3% dividend yield in FY 2026, which lifts the total potential return to over 28%.
Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:
Outperform. NST's 1Q result was mixed but broadly in line with NST's prior commentary on the quarter while net cash was a moderate miss to VA. Despite two incidents that will impact 2QFY26, guidance has been retained with productivity improvements at KCGM and grade improvements at Yandal and Pogo.
