Now could be the time to pounce on Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW) shares.
That's the view of analysts at Bell Potter, which have just upgraded the ASX 200 stock.
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What is the broker saying?
Bell Potter has been looking over the online furniture and homewares retailer and remains comfortable with its forecasts.
According to the note, the broker continues to believe that the ASX 200 stock can deliver strong growth during the first half of FY 2026. It said:
We remain optimistic on the seasonal trading period in 1H26e following some supportive data points from industry pure-play peers such as Mocka (part of Adairs Group, ADH), recent online spend from Australia Post and as TPW cycles relatively easier comps in months of Sep-Oct driven by customer behaviour characteristics in the pcp.
TPW's last update in Aug-25 reported that check-out revenue for the period of 1- Jul to 11-August was +28% on pcp, and market expectations for +23% revenue growth in 1H26e appears supportive for the trading update on 26th Nov 25.
Bell Potter also highlights that the aforementioned trading update could be a key catalyst to driving its shares higher. Especially given the softer comparable sales that it is cycling. It adds:
With a YTD 1H26 trading update expected in late-Nov (timing of the trading update similar to FY23/24), we think TPW will benefit from a period of softer comps in the months of Sep/Oct to track close to overall 1H26 Consensus expectations. We note some headwinds related to challenging comps in the two key months of Nov-Dec, potential investment into pricing via promotional activity (however majority supplier funded) and marketing investment to maintain momentum vs tailwinds related to a growing penetration of the Black Friday marquee sales event in Australia vs the more mature US/UK markets.
Time to buy this ASX 200 stock
Due to recent share price weakness and its positive outlook, Bell Potter has upgraded Temple & Webster's shares to a buy rating with a $28.00 price target.
Based on its current share price of $23.79, this implies potential upside of 18% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its upgrade, Bell Potter said:
We continue to see catalysts of outperformance as market share capture in an expanded TAM is expedited with range, pricing/scale advantages, backed by a strong balance sheet ($144m cash). Following the sell-off in the sector/name, our PT of $28.00 implies a total expected return of >15% and we upgrade our recommendation to BUY.
