This ASX 300 retail stock should deliver double-digit returns, one broker says

Despite a weaker-than-expected start to the first half, this retail stock is still worth a look.

| More on:
Part of male mannequin dressed in casual clothes holding a sale paper shopping bag.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Adairs sales are tracking weaker than expected.
  • The upcoming Black Friday and Christmas sales will be crucial.
  • Jarden analysts still rate the stock a buy.

Shares in homewares retailer Adairs Ltd (ASX: ADH) are still worth a look at current levels, the team at Jarden says, despite a trading update this week which said sales had "moderated" in the first half.

Adairs released an update this week ahead of its annual general meeting, which said that the company's sales growth had slowed as it pulled back on promotional activity in its Adairs branded division.

The company downgraded its first-half guidance from projected revenue of $324.5 to $336.5 million to $319.5 to $331.5 million as a result.

The Adairs business comprises three retail brands: Adairs, Focus on Furniture, and Mocka.

Sales slowing

The company told the market that:

After am encouraging start, sales at Focus Furniture have slowed despite ongoing promotional activity leading to lower than planned gross profit margin. Mocka's strong sales momentum has been maintained with customers continuing to respond well to new product.

Jarden, in a research note sent to clients, said the update "implies the test is still to come''.

This was because about 55% of sales came towards the end of the first half of the financial year, as Black Friday sales and Christmas skewed the results.

The Jarden analysts added:

Focus sales downgrades are consistent with industry feedback on weaker sector furniture sales in August and September.

The Jarden team said, despite the soft update, they remained comfortable with their buy rating on the stock and had a price target of $2.68 on Adairs shares, albeit reduced from their previous target of $2.96.

Including 3.4% of returns from dividends, the Jarden analysts are expecting a total shareholder return over 12 months of 17%.

Key risks to the company going forward included the macroeconomic environment, promotions, costs, the company's execution on its national distribution centre, and competition, the Jarden team said.

Adairs said in its update this week that the company remained "cautiously optimistic" about the outlook for the rest of the half.

All three businesses are well-stocked, and our term are well-prepared for the peak trading period ahead.

Protest votes

The company received a strong protest vote against its remuneration report this week, with 20.4% of shares voted going against its adoption.

This fell short of the 25% of no votes needed to constitute a strike under Australian corporate law.

There was also a significant vote of 13.4% against the re-election of Trent Peterson as a director of the company.

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Adairs. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Adairs. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Retail Shares

Stressed shopper holding shopping bags.
Broker Notes

What are Macquarie's key picks in the retail space?

There are some clear winners and losers in the retail sector, with Macquarie naming its key picks.

Read more »

ASX expensive defensive shares man carrying large dollar sign on his back representing high P/E ratio or dividend
Retail Shares

Wesfarmers shares have doubled my money over the past 3 years. Is it time to buy more?

I was fortunate enough to pick up my first tranche of Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) shares back in June of…

Read more »

Woman about to eat a burger.
Retail Shares

As US fast food giants cool off, are ASX 200 favourites back on the menu?

After a global sell-off, ASX 200 fast food stocks might just be serving up the next value opportunity.

Read more »

Photo of two women shopping.
Retail Shares

Macquarie tips nearly 20% upside for this ASX All Ords consumer discretionary stock

It looks like a great time to consider shopping for this stock.

Read more »

Four girls in festive pink hats are sitting on a hammock and laughing merrily.
Retail Shares

Nick Scali shares spike to record high: How much more upside is left?

The furniture giant is going from strength to strength.

Read more »

Happy friends holding shopping bags in a shopping mall.
Retail Shares

The tills are ringing hot at this youth fashion retailer

This youth fashion retailer is opening new stores at pace amid a strong start to the year.

Read more »

Woman checking out new iPads.
Retail Shares

Why are JB Hi-Fi shares tumbling today?

Investors are bidding down JB Hi-Fi shares today. But why?

Read more »

Girl with make up and jewellery posing.
Retail Shares

As a key competitor hits the skids, what's the outlook for Lovisa shares?

Its competitor's pain could be Lovisa's gain.

Read more »