The S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ) is climbing higher today. At the time of writing, the index is 0.49% higher at an all-time high of 9,852.00 points.
But not every share on the index is on the same trajectory. In contrast, Perpetual Ltd (ASX: PPT) shares are changing hands 4.28% lower at $20.35 a piece, at the time of writing.
The share price spiked 3.05% higher at the close of the ASX yesterday following a positive first-quarter update. The financial services company announced its total assets under management (AUM) was 2.3% higher for the period despite net outflows and negative currency movements. Much of the growth was led by a 5.6% increase in AUM of its Barrow Hanley business.
Now, in a note to investors this morning, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has released its latest outlook on Perpetual shares.
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Here's what Macquarie expects next from the ASX 200 stock
The broker confirmed its outperform rating on Perpetual shares. It has also lowered its 12-month target price to $23.60, down from $23.95 earlier this month.
Despite the revision, at the time of writing this still represents a potential upside of around 16% for investors over the next 12 months.
"Valuation: We temper our SOTP-based TP to $23.60 (from $23.95), reflecting our earnings revisions. Our valuation is based on 12-mth forward PE of 9x for Asset Management, 20x for Corporate Trust and 8x for Wealth," Macquarie said in its investor note.
"Maintain Outperform rating. PPT has underperformed the market by ~7% since FY25 results on Aug-25, despite reporting Sep-25 FUM/FUA in line and a slightly better PAM net flows. We also see further cost-out opportunity above the $70-75m target, which could support medium-term earnings."
What else does the broker have to say about Perpetual?
Macquarie noted that the ASX 200 stock's asset management flows of -$2.2 billion are slightly improved for the September 2025 quarter. Macquarie estimated net outflows would be -$3.6 billion for the quarter, and market estimates were for a -$3.3 billion net outflow. Perpetual recorded a -$3.9 billion outflow in the June quarter.
Meanwhile, the broker also noted that Perpetual continues to pursue the sale of its wealth business.
"While FUA of $21.9bn was in line with MRE $22.0bn and Cons $21.8bn (average of FY25 and 1H26E), net inflows of +$0.1bn disappointed vs MRE +$0.37bn, likely reflecting the impact of the proposed sale of Wealth on flows. PPT confirmed it continues to pursue the sale of the Wealth division, although provided no further colour," it said.
